Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis – April 11-15, 2016 -Forecast

Crude Oil drove the markets crazy soaring in the beginning of the week only to take a serious hit on Thursday and recovering with a vengeance on Friday. Oil closed the week at 39.64 with a weekly gain of 7.75%. This week global equities and commodities are expected to rebound on signals from oil. Oil was up more than 6 percent, boosted by expectations U.S. production will continue to decline and optimism about the U.S. economy. Data earlier this week showed an unexpected drop in crude inventories and a strong rise in demand from refiners.

Once again, newswires are saying it was the Federal Reserve to the rescue on Thursday night to help lift market sentiment. Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy was “on a solid course, not a bubble economy” at a gathering with former Fed leaders Alan Greenspan, Paul Volcker and Ben Bernanke.

Oil prices rebounded on Friday on optimism about the US economy and hopes of an agreement between major producers to limit their output. The data showed despite the draw-down on crude, total stocks of oil and all petroleum products grew again from already historic highs, up 1.1 million barrels to 1.357 billion barrels. Traders will be watching weekly US crude production and inventory data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The U.S oil fell 1.3 percent to $37.26 per barrel. In March, Russian oil production increased by 0.3% to 10.91 million barrels a day, the highest level of last 30 years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note that US shale production was in “freefall” and that “as the global oil glut starts to clear, crude oil should lead the way”.

Iran has refused to curtail production and vowed to keep pumping until production is on par with the levels seen before sanctions. Saudi Arabia stated it would back out of the plan unless Iran follows the production freeze. These three countries will be the main keys to reaching a solution during the trade. Aside from planned oilfield maintenance works in Norway and Britain that are supporting Brent, global crude prices have also been helped by last month’s disruptions in Nigerian supplies at a venture operated by Royal Dutch Shell.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week:

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Apr 12 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Apr 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Apr 13 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:15 Switzerland Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:30 UK Holds bond auction

Apr 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Apr 14 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction