Brent Oil Reversal Confirmed: Elliott Wave Analysis Signals Deeper Correction

Yesterday’s Drop Is a Sign of a Larger Correction

In our first update on Brent Oil, see here, when it was trading around $112.7, we found, using the Elliott Wave Principle, that

“… [our analyses] reinforce the likelihood of a near-term top. Traders should be vigilant for reversal signals, as the completion of the 5th wave will usher in an ABC corrective phase, leading to lower prices in the weeks ahead. A break below the red W-iv low at $96.78 -the red warning level for the Bulls- will signal that the black W-2/b to ideally $77.50+/-5 is underway.”

Fast-forward to today. Brent Oil topped out the same day at $114.81 and then dropped almost 20% intra-day yesterday, falling to $91.39 and breaking below the critical red warning level for the Bulls.

Figure 1. Elliott Wave Count of Brent Oil’s Advance Since Its December 2025 Low

News Trails the Elliott Wave

Thus, thanks to the EWP, we were well ahead of the news in January about a pending rally and in late March about a pending steep decline. It is therefore a cornerstone of technical analysis, as it provides traders and investors, e.g., our premium members, with a framework for timely identification of reversals and new market trends.

Looking ahead, the corrective phase in Brent Oil is now expected to be underway and to unfold with significant volatility as market participants react to the rapid price decline. The ideal 50-76% retracement zone, based on Fibonacci analysis, typically serves as a strong support area where buyers may re-enter the market, potentially stabilizing prices. As always, we will monitor price action and other indicators daily for our premium members to confirm the end of the correction and the possible start of a new uptrend.