S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Meta Jump Drives US Stocks Today, Oil Shapes Forecast

Stocks Edge Higher for Second Straight Session as Ceasefire Hopes Hold

The major U.S. stock indexes are edging higher for a second straight session late Thursday. The S&P 500 is up 0.79%, the Nasdaq Composite has gained 0.77%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is climbing 380.87 points, or 0.79%. The ceasefire is still holding and that’s enough to keep buyers in the market.

Middle East Signals Keep the Bid in Place

Netanyahu put some positive news on the tape today. Israel is willing to start direct talks with Lebanon and that gave traders another reason to stay long. It isn’t a solution but it’s better than escalation and the market took it that way.

WTI crude traded above $97 a barrel after briefly pushing above $100. Brent crude held above $95. The Strait of Hormuz still isn’t back to normal and that’s keeping energy prices elevated. Until tankers are moving freely through that chokepoint, oil has a floor under it.

Tech Leads, Defensives Follow

 

Meta Platforms jumped more than 3% on a new artificial intelligence model launch and the Nasdaq followed. That’s the easy part to explain. What’s more interesting is that Walmart and Constellation Energy were also up on the same day. I’ve seen that combination before. It usually means the rally has participation but not commitment. Traders are buying both sides of the risk spectrum because nobody wants to be caught leaning too hard in either direction.

Inflation Data Keeps the Fed in Play

The personal consumption expenditures price index gave the market nothing to get excited about. February came in at 0.4% and 2.8% year over year. Right on the number. Core inflation hit forecasts too but it’s still above 2% and that’s the only number the Federal Reserve cares about right now. The meeting notes made that clear. They’re watching and they’re not done. Weekly jobless claims at 219,000 ticked slightly above expectations but not enough to move the needle on rate cut expectations.

Technical Outlook

Technically, the main trend is up on the swing chart after S&P 500 Index (SPX) buyers took out three previous tops. The index is also trading on the strong side of both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at 6765.00 and 6659.00 respectively, making them support.

Additional support is the short-term retracement zone at 6740.50 to 6659.50. The long-term retracement zone support is at 6566.50 to 6483.00.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with few headwinds following a breakout over the March 10 top at 6845.08.

What Drives the Market From Here

Oil is the key variable right now. Ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy costs come down, inflation pressure eases and this rally has room to extend. Ceasefire falls apart and oil makes another run at $100, inflation stays elevated and stocks run into a wall.

The Fed is the second variable. Core inflation is still above target and the meeting notes made clear they aren’t done watching. If inflation stays sticky, rate cuts stay off the table and that starts to weigh on growth stocks. If inflation starts cooling, the conversation shifts and the market gets something to trade on. Right now the data isn’t giving anyone a clear answer and that uncertainty is what’s keeping this rally from running harder.

Jobless claims ticked above expectations but not enough to change anything. A slowly rising claims number is worth watching though. If it keeps climbing it starts to signal slower growth and that changes the whole conversation around rates and earnings.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.