Ominous XRP Fractal Warns About 45% Potential Price Crash

XRP’s (XRP) ongoing rally toward multi-year highs could be nearing exhaustion, if a recurring bearish divergence pattern is any guide.

XRP Price Outlook: A 45% Drop Likely By End of Year

On the two-week chart, XRP has formed a higher high in price while its relative strength index (RSI) prints a lower high, a classic bearish divergence that often signals weakening momentum.

The setup mirrors conditions during the 2017–2018 market peak, when XRP surged to a record high of $3.55. The divergence preceded a brutal multimonth correction back then, with the token eventually shedding over 90% of its value.

The 2018 divergence was followed by a decline toward the 50-period exponential moving average on the two-week chart (50-2W EMA), which was the initial support target.

That same EMA sits near $1.64, roughly 45% below XRP’s current price of $3.15. If the fractal plays out similarly, XRP could retrace toward this level by the year’s end before finding meaningful support.

Such a drop would not necessarily end the broader bull trend, but it would mark a deep corrective phase, potentially shaking out leveraged traders and weaker hands.

The RSI’s failure to confirm new price high suggests buyers are losing strength, even as XRP pushes into fresh territory. If selling pressure accelerates, the $1.90–$2.00 zone may offer interim support, but the 50-2W EMA remains the primary downside target.

What Would Change This View?

Bulls still have a strong counterargument. XRP is currently testing the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.55, the area marked the 2018 top, as immediate resistance.

Importantly, the token has already entered the breakout stage of a prevailing multiyear symmetrical triangle setup, which projects a measured move target near $4.41.

If XRP can clear the $3.55 level decisively, it could trigger a push toward $4.41 before any decisive correction sets in. A further extension of bullish momentum may lift prices toward $5.68, aligning with the 1.618 Fib level.

The path would require sustained volume, XRP ETF approvals in the US, and continued whale accumulation to invalidate the immediate bearish outlook.