Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

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Updated: Aug 11, 2015, 11:25 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold added over $8 climbing to 1112.60 as mixed messages came from the Fed’s and China let the yuan slide on the open

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 - Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added over $8 climbing to 1112.60 as mixed messages came from the Fed’s and China let the yuan slide on the open market. Silver soared to trade at 15.318 and platinum was up to 993.80. All eyes remain on the U.S. economy and if the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates in September. This week is busy for economic news in the U.S. Retail sales data come out on Tuesday. Later in the week traders will see mortgage delinquencies data, core retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Depending on how they report they could add more confidence that the U.S. economy is ready for higher rates.

Gold rose more than one per cent on Tuesday as the dollar cut gains and European stocks fell and investors assessed the impact of China’s move to devalue its currency and prop up its economy.

Beijing allowed the yuan to fall to its lowest level in nearly three years after a run of poor economic data, with the central bank describing the move as a “one-off depreciation’’ of nearly 2 per cent.

China’s rate decision triggered a sharp but short-lived retreat in gold to a session low of $1,093.25 an ounce.

“Probably gold is benefiting from fears that this is a new round of ‘currency war’,’’ Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said, adding that the move increases uncertainties and risks about the global economy, which tends to be good for gold.

“Gold’s best moment this year came in the first few months when we saw various FX swings, lots of different central banks cutting interest rates or intervening in their monetary policy, so probably there is some element of that which has helped the rally from Monday continue a bit,’’ Turner said.

The metal had gained around one percent on Monday on dollar’s weakness after comments from Federal Reserve officials raised uncertainty about a September rate hike.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
CNY	New Loans	1,480.0B	725.0B	1,280.0B
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	65.7	64.3	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	25.0	32.0	29.7
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	47.6	43.9	42.7

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B