Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 20, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

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Updated: Aug 19, 2015, 14:54 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold ratcheted up today adding $5.20 ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes and inflation data. Gold is trading at 1122.60.

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 20, 2015 – Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold ratcheted up today adding $5.20 ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes and inflation data. Gold is trading at 1122.60. Silver soared 160 points to trade at 14.95 remaining well below its trading range weighed down by low metal demand. Platinum added $4.15 matching gold’s moves to trade at 998.25 and looked ready to break the $1000 level. Gold was stuck in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors waited for the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting for clues on whether the US central bank might raise interest rates in September.

Bullion has found some support above $1,100 after last week’s strong recovery away from a five-and-a-half-year low reached in late July, helped by the uncertainty that followed China’s shock devaluation of its currency.

“Whether this will be enough to keep the upward momentum going remains to be seen as we head into the Fed meeting (at which) … the central bank (is) … likely (to) raise rates,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.

The imminent increase in US interest rates will be the first since 2006 and it has dimmed the appeal of noninterest-bearing assets such as gold.

Further bolstering the case for a speedy rate rise, data on Tuesday showed US housing starts rose to a near-eight-year high in July.

However, technical charts suggested gold could test the three-week high of $1,126 touched last week and then $1,137, ScotiaMocatta analysts said.

“We are cautiously bullish due to the impact of the firm dollar, which has been a negative weight on the metal,” they said in a note.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-2.300M	-2.000M	-0.847M
NZD	PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2)	-0.3%	-0.5%	-1.1%
JPY	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.37T	-0.16T	-0.28T
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Jul)	7.6%	5.5%	9.5%
JPY	Trade Balance (Jul)	-268B	-57B	-69B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday August 20, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
EUR	German PPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.1%	-0.1%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
GBP	Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)		4.3%	4.2%
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)		0.4%	-0.2%
GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)		4.4%	4.0%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)		0.4%	-0.2%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug)		-10	-10
RUB	Central Bank reserves (USD)			358.0B
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		272K	274K
CAD	Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.2%	-1.0%
USD	Existing Home Sales (Jul)		5.44M	5.49M
USD	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	3.2%
USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing		7.0	5.7
USD	Philly Fed Employment (Aug)			-0.4