Silver Price Forecast: A February Pause Sets Up a Final Surge into May

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Updated: Jan 30, 2026, 18:29 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Metals and miners are selling off after Trump officially named Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.
We noted to subscribers on Thursday that gold had surged 10% above its 10-day EMA, an exceedingly rare condition that often signals a short-term peak.
Nevertheless, we believe the parabolic advances in gold and silver could extend into May following a pause in February. In this report, we outline the key levels to monitor in the weeks ahead.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR)

The GSR has spiked below its lower boundary for the fourth time since the 1970s. Historically, such moves have preceded multi-year tops. However, this instance may prove different given the momentum generated by a 45-year breakout above $50.00. We believe the GSR is entering a secular downtrend that could continue towards 20:1 by 2030 or 2031.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio (EOD) weekly chart featuring a detailed momentum view (top), a long-term secular trend analysis (middle), and the corresponding silver price action (bottom).

GSR Cycle Lows

I’ve previously observed that the GSR tends to bottom roughly every five years—2011, 2016, 2021, and now 2026. This cycle points to a reversal in the first half of 2026, followed by another low in 2031, during which the GSR could test 20:1 or lower.

Gold-to-Silver ratio weekly chart.

Gold

Gold reversed sharply lower on Friday after Warsh was tapped to succeed Powell as Fed chair in May. If prices hold the 50-day EMA (roughly $4,600) through February, the parabolic uptrend is likely to resume in March, with targets that could reach $8,000 in the second quarter.

Gold futures daily chart.

Silver

Silver spiked above $120 before reversing. As long as prices hold the 50-day EMA currently near $78.50 through February, we view this as a one-month consolidation within a parabolic advance that could carry prices toward $200+ in May. A sustained breakdown below the 50-day would argue for a multi-year top. Either way, we do not expect a final secular peak until 2031.

Silver futures daily chart.

GDX

Miners formed an outside reversal day and a bearish engulfing candle after reaching the $112 measured target. A close below today’s $104.65 low is required to confirm a swing high and reinforce the potential for a local top. That said, the potential for more upside into Q2 remains intact as long as prices don’t close below the $92.50 price gap in February.

GDX daily chart, including technical indicators.

GDXJ

Juniors reached their measured target and formed a swing high today. The potential for more upside into Q2 remains as long as prices don’t close below the $121.95 price gap.

GDXJ daily chart, including techncial indicators.

SILJ

Silver juniors have exceeded their measured target but have significantly underperformed silver since November. The potential for further upside remains as long as prices do not progressively close below the $30.50 price gap.

SILJ daily chart, including technical indicators.

Closing Thoughts

Friday’s selloff in precious metals is severe and may extend further given the magnitude of the recent advance. Leveraged traders are being forced out, but conditions should begin to stabilize.

As long as gold and silver hold their respective 50-day EMAs through February, we believe the blow-off rally could extend into May, with gold reaching $8,000 and silver advancing towards $200+

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

About the Author

AG Thorsoncontributor

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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