The silver market initially gapped to the downside at the open on Thursday, as we have reached the top of the overall consolidation area.
Silver has fallen significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as we broke down below the $25 level. With this, the market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore we need to look at it through the prism of volatility. The volatility is probably going to pick up quite drastically on Friday, as we have the jobs number coming out, and of course that fluence is where people look for the US dollar to go. The 50-Day EMA sits just below the $24 level and is rising, and therefore I think it offers a significant amount of support. I think a lot of buyers would come into the market based on a value trade, looking at the silver market as one way to play against the US dollar. I think that’s a bit of a stretch at this point, but given enough time we will have a bit of clarity.
After the jobs number, the change in attitude would be something that has to be watched, because quite frankly if the US dollar suddenly takes off, that could be very bad for silver. All things being equal, I do not think that the silver market is going to be easy to hang onto, because the area right around $25.50 is major resistance, and if we can break above that resistance area, then I think we go looking to the $26.50 level. Underneath, if we break down below the $24 level, then we really start to see a lot of negativity. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be very difficult, so you need to be cautious with your position sizing. Position sizing will be everything here, as volatility will continue to be a major issue in the silver market, which quite frankly is more often the case than not anyway.
We are at the top of the major consolidation area, so therefore I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of it being a little bit of expensive in the short term, but I also think that a complete turnaround in silver seems to be unlikely at this point.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.