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Silver Prices Forecast: Rate Speculations Drive Volatility in XAG/USD

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 26, 2024, 12:46 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Silver is sharply lower, with the price action reflecting market reactions to Fed's cautious stance on interest rate changes.
  • Upcoming core PCE price index and GDP data are key to shaping market expectations and silver's future price trend.
  • Short-term silver price movements hinge on economic data, influencing investor sentiment and Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
Silver Prices Forecast

In this article:

Silver Market Analysis

Silver prices are facing a significant downturn at the start of the week, influenced by changing market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. This decline is notable even against the backdrop of lower Treasury yields and a softer U.S. Dollar, which usually bolster silver’s appeal, suggesting an intense selling activity.

At 12:34 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $22.54, down $0.41 or -1.78%.

Federal Reserve’s Policy Stance

Recent statements from the Federal Reserve indicate a cautious stance towards lowering interest rates, leaning towards maintaining current rates at least until mid-2024. This position is influencing market expectations and affecting the attractiveness of silver, generally preferred in environments of lower interest rates.

Economic Indicators’ Impact

Upcoming economic data, particularly the core PCE price index, are vital for guiding the Fed’s policy decisions. These indicators will shed light on inflationary trends and the overall economic condition, factors crucial in shaping the future direction of interest rates.

Investor Sentiment

Market participants are poised to pay close attention to the upcoming release of the core PCE price index and GDP figures. These data points will provide key insights into the Federal Reserve’s possible actions and will be instrumental in guiding the immediate direction of silver prices.

Silver Price Outlook

In the short term, silver prices may continue to face downward pressure due to the prevailing market sentiment, largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and forthcoming economic data.

If upcoming data suggests milder inflation and economic headwinds, it could lead to renewed expectations of an earlier rate cut, potentially supporting silver prices.

On the other hand, sustained inflation concerns and robust economic data might reinforce the Fed’s current cautious stance, likely resulting in continued pressure on silver prices. The market’s reaction to the core PCE price index and GDP data will be crucial in determining silver’s price movement in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver is trading sharply lower on Monday after pulling away from the 50- and 200-day moving averages at $23.07 and $23.28, respectively. Both MA’s are new resistance.

Although there is a chance that were witnessing a 50% to 61.8% correction of the recent rally, if the downside momentum continues, we could see another test of the key support range at $22.23 – $21.88.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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