Silver prices are facing a significant downturn at the start of the week, influenced by changing market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. This decline is notable even against the backdrop of lower Treasury yields and a softer U.S. Dollar, which usually bolster silver’s appeal, suggesting an intense selling activity.
At 12:34 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $22.54, down $0.41 or -1.78%.
Recent statements from the Federal Reserve indicate a cautious stance towards lowering interest rates, leaning towards maintaining current rates at least until mid-2024. This position is influencing market expectations and affecting the attractiveness of silver, generally preferred in environments of lower interest rates.
Upcoming economic data, particularly the core PCE price index, are vital for guiding the Fed’s policy decisions. These indicators will shed light on inflationary trends and the overall economic condition, factors crucial in shaping the future direction of interest rates.
Market participants are poised to pay close attention to the upcoming release of the core PCE price index and GDP figures. These data points will provide key insights into the Federal Reserve’s possible actions and will be instrumental in guiding the immediate direction of silver prices.
In the short term, silver prices may continue to face downward pressure due to the prevailing market sentiment, largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and forthcoming economic data.
If upcoming data suggests milder inflation and economic headwinds, it could lead to renewed expectations of an earlier rate cut, potentially supporting silver prices.
On the other hand, sustained inflation concerns and robust economic data might reinforce the Fed’s current cautious stance, likely resulting in continued pressure on silver prices. The market’s reaction to the core PCE price index and GDP data will be crucial in determining silver’s price movement in the near term.
Silver is trading sharply lower on Monday after pulling away from the 50- and 200-day moving averages at $23.07 and $23.28, respectively. Both MA’s are new resistance.
Although there is a chance that were witnessing a 50% to 61.8% correction of the recent rally, if the downside momentum continues, we could see another test of the key support range at $22.23 – $21.88.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.