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Silver Prices Forecast: Traders Bracing for PCE Inflation Data Impact

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 29, 2024, 12:46 UTC

Key Points:

  • Silver near support levels, eyes on inflation and Fed.
  • Higher PCE may mean sustained high interest rates.
  • Strong dollar and Fed stance bearish for silver.
Silver Prices Forecast

In this article:

Current Market Position of Silver

Silver prices are currently hovering near significant support levels, specifically between $22.33 and $21.88. The market’s focus is largely on U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, which are crucial in shaping interest rate expectations. Presently, silver is trapped in a narrow trading range, reflecting investor caution ahead of these key economic indicators.

At 12:31 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $22.33, down $0.13 or -0.56%.

Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations

The market has already adjusted its outlook, anticipating that significant data underperformance is required to further dampen expectations of interest rate cuts. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest that while progress has been made towards the 2% inflation target, there’s still a journey ahead. This opens the possibility of interest rate reductions later in the year, impacting silver prices since higher interest rates generally discourage investment in non-yielding assets like silver.

Treasury Yields and PCE Index

U.S. Treasury yields have seen a slight increase, with the 10-year yield rising over 3 basis points to 4.305%, and the 2-year yield increasing more than 2 basis points to 4.683%. The market is closely watching the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for January. This report is critical as the PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A higher-than-expected PCE reading may indicate persistent inflation, potentially keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period.

Federal Reserve’s Stance

Recent statements from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and other Fed officials have been data-driven, emphasizing the need for more evidence of sustainable inflation decline before considering rate cuts. This cautious stance by the Fed impacts silver prices as it influences investor expectations regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts.

Short-Term Forecast

The current trend of the U.S. dollar gaining strength, coupled with the market’s anticipation of the PCE data, holds significant implications for silver prices.

If the PCE index reveals higher inflation than expected, it could reshape expectations about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans, potentially reinforcing the dollar’s position. This scenario is likely to exert bearish pressure on silver, as a stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for investors using other currencies, potentially diminishing demand and pushing prices down.

Overall, the intertwining of Federal Reserve policies, particularly concerning interest rates and inflation targeting, with economic data releases creates a cautious or bearish outlook for silver in the short term.

Technical Analysis

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

Technically, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at the lower end of its monthly range, putting it in a position to challenge support at $22.23. Taking out this level could trigger a quick break into another support level at $21.88.

The daily chart suggests that $21.88 could be the trigger point for a steep break over the near-term.

The upside is being well-defended by the 50-day moving average at $22.98 and the 200-day moving average at $23.26. Both are resistance with the latter being a potential trigger point for an upside breakout.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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