Silver (XAG) Forecast: 50-Day MA Support Holds but Major Resistance at $50–$51 Looms

Silver Struggles with Resistance, Lacks Industrial Support

Spot Silver is grinding higher but hasn’t broken through. Spot prices are testing familiar resistance at $49.38 and $49.46, with sellers likely stacked up toward the retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07. There’s no follow-through yet — and no real reason for it. Without a proper catalyst, this looks like a stall, not a breakout.

At 12:32 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $48.62, up $0.58 or +1.21%.

The 50-day moving average at $46.34 continues to anchor support. That level’s keeping the bullish case alive, but barely. ETF flows remain steady, not rising, and demand signals out of China aren’t helping.

Chinese exports fell sharply in October — their worst drop since February — raising fresh questions around global growth and industrial metal appetite. Until the industrial side firms up, silver’s rally will likely need to ride gold’s momentum.

Gold Builds Momentum as Fed Bets Rise, Data Blackout Deepens

Gold is doing the heavy lifting across the metals space. Spot prices are testing breakout resistance at $4046.60. A clean break opens the way to $4133.95 and $4192.36. Traders are increasingly leaning into rate cut bets for December — now sitting around 65–67% — after Challenger data showed U.S. layoffs tripled last month. Without official labor reports for a second straight month due to the government shutdown, markets are leaning hard on private data to gauge Fed direction.

Fed speakers are sounding cautious. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee said the lack of inflation data “accentuates” the need for patience, while futures pricing now reflects a coin-flip for December. That uncertainty is feeding safe-haven flows into gold — and helping silver hold support.

Yields Tick Higher, But the Dollar Lacks Direction

Treasury yields are inching up, with the 10-year at 4.10% and the 2-year around 3.56%. But without key data, the rate market lacks conviction.

The dollar index is back near 99.80, up slightly on the week, but still stuck in the same range it’s held since August. A brief risk-off move helped the dollar early in the week, but with equities under pressure and tech names selling off, gold and the yen have drawn more safe-haven attention.

Forecast: Metals Lean Bullish, But the Market’s Flying Blind

Silver still lacks a trigger. The industrial side is soft, and traders aren’t chasing strength near $50 without a clear reason. A breakout in gold or a sharp move lower in yields might do the trick, but until then, silver is a hold-above-the-50-day trade.

Gold, meanwhile, looks healthier. As long as it holds the $3878–$3846 zone, bulls are in control. A close above $4046 would be the next green light. But without CPI, payrolls, or retail sales, there’s no fresh fundamental signal — just positioning, sentiment, and hope that the Fed stays on the easing path.

Bottom line: Metals are leaning higher, but the market’s flying blind. There’s no need to chase — but plenty of reason to stay long on dips while the shutdown drags on and rate cut odds build.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.