Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can Bulls Hold $36.30 Pivot to Extend Silver Rally?

Silver Breaks Key Pivot: Can Bulls Push to 13-Year Highs?

Silver prices advanced sharply Thursday after buyers cleared the last main top at $36.84, with traders now eyeing a potential test of the 13-year high at $37.32 if momentum holds above the new support pivot at $36.30.

Failure to hold this level, however, risks a swift pullback toward $35.40-$34.87, with the 50-day moving average waiting lower at $34.40. This clean technical structure is giving traders a clear framework for near-term positioning in an environment where macro tailwinds continue to favor precious metals.

At 12:01 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $36.83, up $0.27 or +0.75%.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Dollar Weakness Fuel Precious Metals

A sustained decline in the U.S. dollar, down over 10% year-to-date, has significantly lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. With two-year Treasury yields falling to 3.721%, their lowest since early May, traders continue to price in Fed policy easing, driving capital into hard assets.

Concerns over Federal Reserve independence and fresh evidence of weakening U.S. jobs data are further feeding rate cut expectations, while geopolitical concerns continue to maintain safe-haven demand for silver and gold.

Supply Deficits Underpin Structural Support

Silver’s advance is not just a byproduct of dollar and yield weakness. A persistent structural deficit remains in play, with 2025 global demand projected at 1.20 billion ounces while supply is forecast to rise 3% to 1.05 billion ounces. This imbalance continues to support higher price structures as industrial and investment demand remain firm.

Short-Term Silver Market Forecast

Silver’s near-term outlook remains bullish while the price holds above $36.30, with a potential test of $37.32 in play if dollar softness and lower yields persist. A break below this support risks a deeper correction into the $35.40 zone, where buyers may re-emerge.

For now, the combination of dollar weakness, lower yields, thin holiday trading, and structural supply tightness is keeping the upside case intact, giving traders a clear technical and fundamental backdrop for continuation trades in silver.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.