Silver (XAG) Forecast: Retail Sales in Focus as Traders Look for Clarity in Silver Market

Silver Consolidates as Traders Wait for Wednesday’s NFP

Spot Silver is edging lower on Tuesday after nudging into a 50% pivot earlier in the session. The market appears to be consolidating inside a retracement zone, slightly above the 50-day moving average. The price action suggests investors may be attempting to form a support base as they await the next major catalyst.

At 10:36 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $82.47, down $0.84 or -1.01%.

Mixed Signals, No Clear Driver

Today’s action doesn’t make much sense on the surface. Crude oil is reacting to Iran-U.S. tensions, but silver and gold aren’t following. The dollar is down, which should help silver, but it’s not. Lower Treasury yields are supportive long-term, but not providing any lift today either.

That disconnect tells you one thing: traders are sitting tight ahead of this week’s data. The usual catalysts—geopolitical risk, dollar weakness, falling yields—aren’t driving action because the market is waiting for concrete direction from economic reports.

Data Week: Retail Sales, NFP, and CPI

Silver traders are expressing caution ahead of today’s U.S. retail sales data and especially in front of Wednesday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Friday’s CPI reports. This data is important because it could help determine the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut in 2026, which the market is currently pricing for June.

There’s no question that silver traders pay attention to the Fed. Much of the rally in 2025 to the top on January 29 was linked to expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. That top came one day after the Fed’s last monetary policy statement and one day before President Trump announced his nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman—proof that Fed policy drives this market.

As long as the data keeps two Fed rate cuts on the table, silver’s uptrend stays intact. If the data comes in too strong and kills rate cut expectations, the market’s in trouble.

Technical Picture: Two Ways to Read This

Technically, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $83.61. A sustained move over this level could launch a rally into the next resistance cluster at $92.20 to $92.87.

If traders fail to overcome the pivot, look for a pullback into the 50-day moving average at $78.62. A break below that level could extend losses into the Fibonacci level at $74.63.

Alternatively, focus on the 50-day moving average at $78.62 as the key trend indicator. As long as the market holds above it and the economic data keeps two Fed rate cuts in play, it’s just a matter of time before the rally resumes. Silver should eventually pull away from the current congestion area, even if the path to the record high at $121.67 isn’t clear yet.

The Bottom Line

Today’s a wait-and-see session. The market’s not reacting to geopolitics, the dollar, or yields. Traders want to see what the data says before committing. Wednesday’s NFP is the catalyst everyone’s watching.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.