Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Extends Breakout Run, but Overbought Signs Suggests Pause

Silver Hits New Trend High, Faces Overbought Signals

Silver extended its rally on Monday, reaching a new trend high of $47.18. The move places silver in its most overbought condition since August 2020, according to the relative strength index (RSI). Back then, the RSI surge above 70 coincided with the peak at $49.81, which preceded a multi-month correction. The parallel is worth noting as momentum signals suggest caution despite ongoing bullish pressure.

Multiple Channel Breakouts Show Strength, but Raise Concerns

Technical structure highlights how steep the rally has become. Silver first broke out of a long-term rising parallel channel in late August, then cleared the top of a smaller channel last week. Now, a third and even tighter channel is being tested, with today’s advance pushing against its upper boundary. Breaking through successive channels highlights strong demand but also hints at speculative overheating. Trading at the top of this near-term channel, alongside confluence with several indicator levels, suggests the market may be due for a rest through consolidation or retracement.

Upside Targets and Open Field Potential

Despite these warnings, buyers remain firmly in control. Monday’s advance looks set to end with a new daily close above last week’s high of $46.63. Several upside objectives have already been surpassed, including the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $46.34. The next target sits at $47.48, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of a long-term measurement. Above that, silver has relatively open space until the April 2011 peak at $49.81, making a rapid test of that level possible if momentum persists.

Longer-Term Pattern Development

This advance also represents the right side of a potential cup-with-handle pattern that has been forming since silver’s 2011 high. A pullback from current or slightly higher levels, consistent with the 2011 resistance zone, could serve as the beginning of the handle portion of the structure. That would be a constructive development, allowing the market to consolidate gains before attempting a more durable breakout above the decade-long resistance band.

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