Solana-based Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin is showing signs of another breakdown after falling by nearly 35% from its April highs of $16.45. The bearish outlook emerges from a classic technical pattern and other reasons.
TRUMP Technical Analysis — Bear Pennant Risks 15-20% Decline
The chart reveals a classic bear pennant formation, a continuation pattern that typically signals further downside after a sharp decline. TRUMP experienced a steep drop between April 29 and May 2, followed by a consolidation phase forming the pennant.
On May 6, the price broke below the pennant’s lower trendline, confirming the bearish setup. The target for this pattern can be projected by measuring the initial drop and extending it downward from the breakout point, suggesting a potential decline to as low as $9.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is at 31.50, nearing oversold territory but still showing bearish momentum with no immediate signs of reversal.
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) further support this outlook: the 50-period EMA ($12.05) and 200-period EMA ($11.28) are both well above current prices, acting as strong resistance levels and confirming the downtrend.
TRUMP Fundamentals — Dinner Hype But That’s All
Fundamentally, TRUMP faces headwinds from a “sell the news” event tied to recent hype.
In early May 2025, buzz around a high-profile dinner involving Donald Trump and top $TRUMP memecoin holders fueled a temporary spike in the price, driving speculative interest.
Memecoins often rally on such event-driven narratives. However, the TRUMP chart shows the subsequent drop aligns with a classic “sell the news” reaction, suggesting the so-called dinner hype is now fading.
$trump lol -25% dump…and u get to eat shit for dinner with the president too pic.twitter.com/CvbCKdiGph
— YoloMoonLambo (@YoloMoonLambo) May 3, 2025
Additionally, the post-2024 election cycle has diminished political memecoin appeal, as the narrative around Donald Trump’s political relevance wanes.
Overall, the token’s lack of utility or development roadmap makes it a prime target for sell-offs in a risk-off environment.
