Dogecoin (DOGE) has gone up by 9% in the past 24 hours and just hit $0.11 for the first time since February this year.
Trading volumes exploded by 87% during this period, as bears got squeezed. At $3.3 billion, these volumes account for 16% of DOGE’s circulating market cap, meaning that the buying pressure is quite strong.
According to data from CoinGlass, over $21 million worth of DOGE short positions evaporated in the past 24 hours. This is the highest single-day wipeout that DOGE bears have experienced since the October 10 flash crash.
In January this year, over $12 million worth of short Dogecoin positions were also flushed. However, in the context of a strong bear market, this spike in liquidations yielded little result, and DOGE only managed to rise from $0.12 to $0.15.
However, as market sentiment seems to be recovering and the crypto market appears to be making a comeback, this short squeeze could be the beginning of the end of this latest bearish cycle for meme coins.
Just two days ago, 21Shares launched the first Dogecoin-linked exchange-traded product (ETP) in Germany through Xetra. This is one of the leading European exchanges. The launch is another important milestone for DOGE as meme coins have come a long way from being mere “internet jokes”.
On that day, DOGE ETFs in the United States brought in their first positive net inflows since April 15 with nearly $500,000 flowing to these products. Net assets held in DOGE-linked vehicles rose to a new all-time high of $12 million.
As a result of today’s uptick, Dogecoin has now accumulated a 16% gain in the past 16%, outperforming all other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), during this period.
This is a remarkable achievement for the meme coin at a point when investors are still relatively cautious about the future of cryptos and have mainly opted to concentrate their holdings on the two top tokens.
Thin volumes could be contributing to today’s explosive move. Data from Artemis shows that volumes remain significantly subdued compared to the levels seen between July and October last year, back when DOGE traded at around $0.20.
Hence, organic spot buying needs to increase to sustain this rally. This is the first thing that needs to happen to get DOGE to 20 cents shortly. Otherwise, bears will soon regain control of the price action.
Heading to the weekly chart, we can see that the $0.09 historical support held up quite well during the recent bearish cycle. Dogecoin spent a while consolidating near that level but has now been rising for three weeks in a row, implying persistent buying interest.
Activity in the futures market has also been rising, but this is still a mild recovery as open interest (OI) currently sits at $1.7 billion, down 72% from a recent peak of $6 billion. This implies that traders’ participation in the rally is still relatively low.
There needs to be higher interest in the speculative front to further fuel a strong rally. This would be the second driver that needs to be in place to catapult Dogecoin to higher levels.
If the latest wave of buying continues, we may see DOGE rising to $0.115 in the near term, meaning a small upside potential of 8.5%. However, if we break past that resistance, the short squeeze should intensify.
We already saw how short positions have built up strongly above key thresholds. If we get another strong rally and break that ceiling, the odds of a massive squeeze will rise dramatically.
Rising past the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.15 will further add fuel to that rally, if it happens, and should set the stage for the continuation of the move toward the $0.28 resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped below 35 in this higher time frame. This is consistent with what we see in other major cryptocurrencies. In DOGE’s case, this signal has worked three out of the last four times to predict major bullish moves.
What we like the most about the latest price action is that the weekly RSI just rose above the 14-week moving average. This did not happen the last time we got the signal, and was probably the biggest evidence that it was a false positive.
Paired with the fact that DOGE just bounced off a key multi-year support area at $0.09, we get ourselves quite an attractive setup that could lead to interesting gains if historical patterns repeat.
Based on what we have seen in previous cycles, DOGE could rise by 170% over the next 6 to 12 months. Breaking the $0.115 resistance would further confirm this buy signal in the weekly RSI.
Heading to the 4-hour chart, we can see an interesting breakout above what had been a strong sell wall at around $0.103. The selling pressure ramped up as soon as DOGE hit $0.11. This is a normal pullback and could be creating an opportunity for a short-term trade with a risk-reward ratio of 4x.
The entry would be set at current levels, but we still expect the continuation of this pullback to that $0.103 level as part of a normal retest of a former supply area.
The target for this trade would be the $0.115 resistance, while the stop price could be set at around $0.100.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.