Nasdaq Index: Fed Outlook to Drive US Stocks as Big Tech Reports

S&P 500 Stuck in Neutral as Oil, Fed and Big Tech All Hit at Once

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hugging the flatline Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about half a percent. Three things are hitting this market at the same time and none of them are resolved. Oil is running, the Fed decides today, and four of the biggest names in tech report after the close. That combination keeps traders from committing in either direction.

Oil Is the Pressure Nobody Wanted Today

June WTI crude oil is climbing above $105 a barrel. Spot Brent crude oil is moving past $117. The reason is the same one that has been driving this market for weeks. The U.S. is preparing for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports and traders are pricing in a supply disruption that is not going away anytime soon. Energy costs running this hot feed straight into inflation and inflation is exactly what the Fed is still trying to bring down. Higher oil makes the Fed’s job harder and it takes rate cuts further off the table. The market knows it and the indexes are reflecting it.

Powell’s Last Stand

The Fed holds today. That is fully priced and there is no debate about it. Inflation is still near 3% and the labor market is not giving policymakers a reason to move. What I am watching is the language. This is likely Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair and every word he says about the rate path gets read through the lens of what Warsh does next. A firm higher-for-longer tone keeps pressure on equities. Any softening in the language and this market bounces fast.

Big Tech Has to Deliver

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all report after the close. The bar is high. These companies have been pouring money into artificial intelligence and investors are not just looking for a good quarter. They want to see that the spending is turning into revenue and that guidance holds up. I’ve seen this setup before. Elevated expectations after a big run leave no margin for error. One miss on guidance from any of those four and today’s flatline looks like the easy part of the week.

Stocks in the News

Seagate Technology and NXP Semiconductors are both sharply higher after beating expectations and issuing upbeat guidance. When storage and chip names move like that it tells you parts of the AI supply chain are still working. The OpenAI revenue miss report is creating hesitation in the broader tech sector but it is not stopping the names with real numbers from getting bought.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq Composite is in an uptrend according to the main swing chart. A trade through 24889.37 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The short-term range is 24199.00 to 24889.37. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 24544.19. Trader reaction to this level should set the tone into the close. Holding above it will signal the presence of buyers and a possible test of the record high.

A failure at 24544.19 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is a Gann angle at 24324.00. Look for a technical bounce on the first test. A break down under the angle could plunge to the minor bottom at 24199.00.

The minor trend changes to down under 24199.00. Momentum turns lower too. This could drive the market into the intermediate retracement zone at 23842.60 to 23595.56. This is the value zone that should attract new buyers.

What to Watch

Fed language at 18:00 GMT is the first catalyst. Powell’s press conference follows and that is where the real signal lives. Then four major tech earnings after the close. Oil does not need a fresh headline to keep climbing and that stays in the background all day. This market is waiting for permission to move. The Fed and big tech give it that permission or they don’t. Either way volatility picks up before the session ends.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.