S&P 500 Forecast: 7,000 Milestone Belongs to the ‘Other 493’ as Breadth Broadens

The S&P 500 Index is displaying a level of stoicism that frankly defies the gravity of current global friction. We’ve watched the index surge 9% in April alone, crossing the historic 7,000 milestone while the geopolitical theater darkens with stalled peace talks and maritime blockades. I don’t think this is a breakdown. It’s a breath-catcher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is cooling toward 47 on the intraday charts. This reset allows the market’s internal machinery to catch up with the price action. We’re seeing a bull run that’s becoming far more resilient and far more diversified than the old Magnificent 7 narrative.

Breadth Steals the Spotlight

For a year, the market’s pulse was Big Tech. No more. The NVIDIA Nebula is distorting the reality of the Mag 7. If you peel back the label and remove NVIDIA, the estimated earnings growth for that elite group falls from 22.8% to a mere 6.4%. Meanwhile, the “Other 493” are finding their footing with a blended growth rate of 10.1%. Money isn’t fleeing; it’s moving house. We’re seeing rotation into names like United Rentals (URI), which surged over 20% this session’s trading after flipping the script on low investor expectations. This broadening breadth is the engine room for the next leg higher.

Market Breadth Above 60

S&P Bullish Percent Index with the S&P 500 Index. Source: TradingView

Corporate America’s Six-Quarter Marathon

Supporting this height is an earnings scorecard that suggests Corporate America has found its second wind. We’re on track for the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. To date, 88% of reporting companies have beaten EPS estimates. That’s a victory lap well above the 10-year average of 76%. This internal robustness acts as a vital shock absorber. It lets the market ignore a persistent geopolitical cramp.

PMI Beat Fuels the Bid

The macro backdrop keeps the message constructive. Earlier in this session , the US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash printed 52.0 against a 50.3 consensus. Growth is running ahead of expectations. I’ve noticed this helps explain why the tape continues to absorb 4.3% Treasury yields without losing its underlying bid. While manufacturing is benefiting from safety stock building amidst supply concerns, the services sector remains the primary anchor. It’s a fragmented world—the Eurozone has slipped into contraction at 48.6, but the U.S. consumer and market remain the world’s primary anchors for capital.

US Composite PMI prints 52.0 expansion

Bar chart showing US S&P Global Composite PMI exceeding forecasts at 52.0. Source: TradingView

Technical Reset Above 7,080

The Renko structure is the one traders should obsess over. Looking at the Renko with a 12-point brick size, the structure still leans heavily bullish. Price is hovering around 7,092, which keeps it safely above the lower Supertrend support at 7,081. The longer-term 500-SMA is way below the current action, reinforcing the primary uptrend.

I like that RSI has cooled. It reads like a reset inside an ongoing advance. Intraday, we’re catching a breath after hitting overhead resistance. The upper Supertrend boundary sits near 7,138. That’s the immediate line in the sand for bulls. A clean push through there tells me the pullback is over and the trend is ready to extend. On the downside, as long as we hold 7,080, this soft patch is corrective, not bearish.

Renko 12-point bricks holding 7,081 support

10-second traditional Renko chart of S&P 500 showing bullish structure above Supertrend floor. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,310, 6,750,

Key Resistance Levels: 7,200, 7,300

Medium-Term Path: I expect the S&P 500 to maintain its upward trajectory toward the 7,400 level by mid-year. Near term, keep a close watch on the 7,081 support and 7,138 resistance. If we hold the first, the path favors another upside attempt. If we clear the second, the market starts pressing higher again. The energy markets offer a glimmer of relief too. Futures suggest current Hormuz disruptions will be short-lived, with oil prices expected to retreat toward the mid-$70s by year-end. Buy the dips as long as the 21-EMA on the daily holds.