Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Extends Bearish Structure

Bearish Breakdown Extends Momentum Pressure

Bearish momentum took hold of natural gas on Thursday, as it triggered the breakdown of a small flag and reached a new interim trend low of $2.71. That provided another test of support near an uptrend line connecting to the prior swing low from January at $2.58. A daily close below the $2.72 low from last week will confirm the bearish trend extension.

Also, today’s decline establishes a bearish outside week that will confirm on a weekly basis with a close below last week’s low. It shows a failed one-week bullish reversal that triggered earlier in the week. Failed breakouts can lead to sharp moves in the opposite direction. That dynamic supports a continuation to the downside for natural gas, reinforcing the broader bearish control established in recent sessions.

Multi-Layer Support Zone Under Pressure

Natural gas has been testing a potential significant support zone reached last week that includes the confluence of prior swing low support, the uptrend line noted above, and the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing. A decisive decline below Thursday’s low will provide the next sign of weakening and confirm a break below that support zone on a move below $2.74, which would further validate downside continuation pressure.

Weak Bounces Reinforce Selling Dominance

Selling pressure in natural gas was tested during the recent upswing that established a lower swing high at $3.49 in early March. Since then, price has continued to fall, and the buyers have barely been aggressive enough to generate another obvious upswing. This shows continued downward pressure as bounces failed given selling pressure, indicating that rallies are increasingly being sold into rather than sustained.

Lower Targets in Focus if Breakdown Continues

A swing low at $2.58 is the next lower price zone where support may be seen. However, given the larger bearish structure, it is anticipated to fail and lead to lower prices. Subsequently, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term uptrend will become a target near $2.31. Further down, a relatively large potential support zone sits around $2.15 to $1.99, which represents the next major area where longer-term buyers may attempt to stabilize price action if downside momentum persists as currently structured.

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