Risk is back, and it’s hungry. I’ve watched the S&P 500 climb a wall of worry that would’ve normally crushed a lesser market, but today we’re staring at a record close. President Trump’s announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has effectively sucked the oxygen out of the geopolitical bears, even as the US Navy maintains a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a classic V-bottom that defies conventional logic. We’re in a mechanical recovery where fundamentals feel like a distant second to momentum.

US Industrial Production dips in April

Bar chart showing US Industrial Production declining in April 2026. Source: TradingView

Weekly Structure Reclaims the High Ground

The overarching chart looks like a masterclass in resilience. I noticed that the index didn’t just bounce; it engineered the largest nominal 11-session point gain in history. Looking at the weekly timeframe, we’ve successfully navigated a stress test. The bears who bet on a global energy apocalypse are now trapped beneath the tape. Momentum points definitively upward, with the war premium fully unwound, more or less.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart shows the Short-Term Supertrend Flipping Bullish

Weekly SPX candlestick chart with bullish Supertrend flip. Source: TradingView

Daily Momentum Defies the Mean

The V-shaped recovery continues on the Daily Chart. The RSI is charging toward 70, signalling alot of momentum in the move. Indeed, I love the technical symmetry here. The market absorbed the shock, found its footing, and is now punishing the late sellers who blindly chased the war headlines into a major demand pocket.

Daily SPX Momentum Accelerates Toward Record Territory

Daily SPX chart highlighting V-shaped recovery above 21-EMA. Source: TradingView

Renko Signals Strength

The 20-brick Renko chart remains firmly bullish and points to a clear breakout in progress. A Z-Score near 2.0 suggests momentum is still supportive, though the move is becoming somewhat stretched and could invite one or two pullbacks in the sessions ahead. Even so, the broader Renko structure continues to favor the upside, with the trend still pointing higher.

20-brick Renko Rallies Robustly

20-brick Renko chart of S&P 500 showing a sequence of green bricks clearing the 500-SMA. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,310, 6,500

Key Resistance Levels: 7,000, 7,100,

Medium Term Path: I expect the S&P 500 to maintain its upward trajectory toward the 7,100 zone, fueled by a cocktail of short-covering and earnings resilience. As long as the diplomatic signals from Pakistan remain constructive and the daily 21-EMA holds, the risk-on rotation into semiconductors and tech will continue. Watch for volatility around the April 21 ceasefire deadline. The machines have the ball. Buy the dips.