S&P 500 Index Forecast: Record Highs in Sight as Earnings and Diplomacy Fuel Risk-On Sentiment

Wall Street is ignoring the heartburn. Despite the geopolitical noise, the S&P 500 is knock, knock, knocking on the heaven’s door of all-time highs. Investors and traders are pivoting. They’re rotating out of defensive shells and back into risk assets as news of potential US–Iran negotiations filters through the tape. Corporate earnings are providing the structural backbone. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley delivered the goods earlier today, proving that volatility is a double-edged sword that can actually pad the bottom line for the big lenders. I’m watching the 7,000 level. It’s the psychological magnet everyone is staring at.

Export and Import Prices Flash Inflationary Mixed Signals

Some economic data came out today. Export prices jumped 1.6% month-over-month in April, which is over the 1.5% forecast and marks a sharp acceleration from the previous month. It’s a heavy lift. Import prices followed suit, rising 0.9% against a 2% forecast, showing that while the energy shock is real, it might not be quite as catastrophic as the bears hoped. These BLS numbers suggest that while inflation is sticky, the supply-side horror story is beginning to find a ceiling.

US Export Prices MoM: Actual vs. Forecast

Export prices accelerate sharply in April, beating the 1.5% forecast at 1.6% MoM. Source: TradingView

US Import Prices MoM: Actual vs. Forecast

Import prices undershoot the 2% forecast at 0.9% MoM, hinting that the energy shock may be finding a ceiling. Source: TradingView

Weekly Structure Reclaims the Bullish Path

The weekly chart is a masterclass in resilience. After a nasty flush that tested the 6,300 level, we’ve seen a flip on the shorter Supertrend. The buyers defended the 6,500 floor with everything they had. Now, we’re watching the index trade near all-time highs, effectively erasing the “war discount” that dominated March. It’s a V-shaped recovery on a macro scale. If we close the week above 7,014, the path to 7,400 is mathematically wide open.

Weekly SPX Defends the 6,300 Floor

The weekly SPX defends the 6,300 floor and erases the war discount with a V-shaped rally. Source: TradingView

Daily Momentum Toward All-Time Highs

Bulls own the daily tape. The index is trading comfortably above the 21-day EMA, which serves as dynamic support. The RSI is charging toward 70. We aren’t overextended yet, but we see some profit-taking near all-time highs. I like the setup here. We cleared the hurdles with authority.

V-Shape Move on Daily SPX

Bulls own the daily tape — the 21-EMA acts as dynamic support and RSI is approaching 70 without yet reaching exhaustion. Source: TradingView

The Bid is In: Renko Confirms

The tape doesn’t lie. Looking at the 20-Brick Renko, the trend is up and to the right with zero hesitation. We’ve printed a nice sequence of green bricks since the 6,313 bottom. The Supertrend triggered a “Buy” signal at 6,889.4, and we’ve successfully shattered the 500-SMA barrier. The Z-Score is stretching to 2.1. It’s hot. We might see a minor back-test of 6,880 before the next leg higher, but the algorithmic bid is mopping up every dip.

20-Brick Renko Displays a Clean Breakout

The Renko prints a clean buy signal at 6,889.4 with the 500-SMA decisively breached and the Z-Score stretched to 2.1. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,889, 6,730, 6,500

Key Resistance Levels: 7,015, 7,100, 7,400

Medium-Term Path: I expect the S&P 500 to clear the 7,015 all-time high before the end of April. The combination of strong earnings and a softening geopolitical risk profile is a powerful tailwind. While the RSI suggests a brief pause might be necessary, the technical breakout on the Renko and Daily charts is too clean to ignore. Buy the dips as long as we stay above the 21-EMA.