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S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Still Very Nervous

By:
Christopher Lewis
Published: Oct 3, 2023, 12:38 GMT+00:00

The S&P 500 fell during the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours. That being said, it still looks like we have a scenario where the market prefers to fade rallies as uncertainty continues.

Wall street in New York City, FX Empire

In this article:

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 04.10.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 fell in early hour trading on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the stock markets. With that being said, it’s probably worth noting that the 200-Day EMA sits just below, and that of course will attract a lot of attention. It has offered support over the last several days, and I anticipate that it still will do the same over the next couple of days. However, we have a lot of things to think about this week, not the least of which will be the jobs number on Friday.

Interest rates continue to dominate the markets, and if they continue to show a proclivity to rise, that does of course work against the stock markets and the momentum of the S&P 500. The rising dollar is a direct result of this as well, so pay attention to the US Dollar Index. If we were to break down below the 200-Day EMA on a daily close, that could kick off further selling, perhaps sending the S&P 500 looking toward the 4200 level underneath.

Above, we have the 4400 level offering significant resistance, and the 50-Day EMA is starting to break toward that level as well. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we have to determine whether we can squeeze out of this area, or if we have to wait around for some type of opportunity. The later we get in the week, the less likely we are to see clarity, mainly due to those jobs numbers. Remember, this is going to be all about the Federal Reserve and what they are going to do going forward, and the jobs component is one of the main reasons why they have remained so hawkish. As long as that’s the case, it works against the value of stocks in general as you can get paid to simply hold paper in the form of a bond. With this being the case, and the fact that you can get 5% a year just sitting still, stocks still face pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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