S&P 500 Price Forecast – stock markets sluggish to open week

With the Lunar New Year and going on, Asia was relatively quiet. A light economic calendar in Europe also meant very little action during that timeframe as well. The Americans don’t have much to say either, and therefore it of course is a very quiet trading session.
Christopher Lewis
S&P 500 daily chart, February 05, 2019

S&P 500 it’s been a very quiet trading session in the S&P 500 as we hover around the 2700 level. This is obviously an important area to pay attention to, because not only is it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also where we see the 200 day EMA is parked. That of course attracts a lot of attention, and that being the case people are waiting to see whether they can start buying again or if they need to see more reason to go long. After all, we have had a nice rally over the last several weeks, after a major melt down.

S&P 500 Video 05.02.19

That being said, it should also be noticed that the volume is much lighter on the rally than the selloff that we had seen. The 200 day EMA will of course attract a lot of attention by algorithmic and longer-term traders, so the fact that we are testing that area means that we are probably going to be making a longer-term decision rather soon. As we have had a couple of very quiet days, it’s likely that we will eventually see the market making an impulsive move. The next impulsive move will tell us whether we are going to go to the 2800 level, or perhaps pull back to the 2600 level. I think at this point, it’s about a 50-50 shot so it’s probably best to leave this market alone and wait until we get a daily candle stick that has a bit of length to it.

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