S&P 500 & US Indexes Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The S&P 500  added as markets opened after lackluster data on Monday. Although traders are paying little attention to specific market events until the ECB meeting on Thursday and the Nonfarm payroll report on Friday.  U.S. stocks were set to open up 0.3 percent, building on Asian gains after tentative signs that a slowdown in China was stabilizing.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 80 points higher, or 0.45% to 17793.  S&P 500 futures were up 9 points, or 0.42% to 2088, while the Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 21 points, or 0.45% at 4690.

Towards the end of the year, there seems to be an inverse relationship between the weather and the stock market. In December, as temperatures get colder, shares get hotter. Since 1970, the FTSE All-Share index has risen in 76% of all years, with an average monthly return of 2.2%. Incredibly, the index has only fallen five times in December since 1984, and in only one of those years was the decline significant. As it happens, the market did fall in December 2014, but it is a rare event. As a consequence December is the strongest month in the year for shares.

Given the general strength of the market in December, an odd feature of the month is that it has the weakest first trading day for any month in the year – average first day returns have been -0.07%, with a probability of a positive return a lowly 45%.

Wall Street S stocks slipped on Monday, led by declines in health and consumer shares, as investors prepared for policy decisions from central banks while awaiting a slew of economic data this week.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to address Congress on Thursday and give a speech on the economic outlook the day before. While the US central bank could raise interest rates in December for the first time since 2006, the European Central Bank is expected to unveil fresh monetary easing measures on Thursday.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could give further clues on the direction of policy ahead of the Fed’s 16-17 December policy meeting. Other US data expected during the week includes November manufacturing and auto sales reports.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus