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Christopher Lewis
S&P 500 weekly chart, February 11, 2019

The S&P 500 has tried to rally during the week, breaking above a downtrend line. However, we have turned right back around to form a massive shooting star the weekly chart, which of course is a very negative sign. This doesn’t silly me that were going to break down right away, but it certainly is a bit concerning. The lack of volume on the move higher is something to be concerned about. I think at this point, you should also pay attention to the fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has shown itself to be important as well, so at this point I think that it’s likely that a break below the bottom of the candle stick should kick off another move lower.

S&P 500 Video 11.02.19

The catalyst are varied, not the least of which will be the US/Chinese trade issues, but I think also we have to worry about a government shutdown which seems all but certain. Quite frankly, with all of these political concerns, it’s not a surprise that the market would struggle to overtake the massive bearish candle stick that kicked off the major selloff recently. Because of this, I believe that we are more than likely going to see lower rather than higher pricing. However, if we were to turn on a break above the top of the shooting star for the week, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign and send this market looking towards the 2800 level rather quickly as it would be a breach of major selling pressure. Either way, buckle up it’s about to get volatile.

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