The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reversed early session losses on Monday as a strong rebound in semiconductor stocks overrode the geopolitical selling pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed under pressure, dragged lower by a sharp decline in Goldman Sachs.
Technically, the June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures contract is trending higher on the daily chart. A trade through 25393.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend with 25705.00 the next upside target.
On the downside, the key support is a 50% level at 24858.25. This is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 24177.25 to 23890.25 the primary objective.
Earlier today the index got tangled up between the 200-day moving average at 25082.70 and the 50-day moving average at 24878.40 before recovering to the upside. I’m looking at these indicators as trigger points for possible accelerations.
A sustained move over the 200-day MA will indicate the presence of strong buyers, while a sustained move under the 50-day MA sets up traders for a possible steep slide.
The open was weak. The U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled Iran negotiations sent oil above $100 and that triggered early selling across equities. It didn’t last. Investors rotated into technology quickly and the Nasdaq moved into positive territory while the broader market stabilized. The geopolitical headline mattered at the open and then the chips took over.
Intel is the story today. Shares rose 2.88% in early trading, marking a ninth consecutive gain and pushing the cumulative advance above 50% over that stretch. Renewed confidence in its manufacturing strategy including the Fab 34 transaction and expanding AI infrastructure partnerships are driving the move. Broadcom added to the strength on long-term AI chip agreements and strong revenue expectations. Marvell Technology surged more than 7% to new highs on strategic investment and continued optical networking demand. When these names move together like this, the Nasdaq has a floor under it.
The price action today is telling you something. Investors are looking past near-term geopolitical uncertainty and focusing on earnings momentum and long-term demand in advanced computing. That preference for AI-linked growth isn’t going away and it’s keeping the Nasdaq bid even when the macro picture is difficult.
Middle East developments and energy prices stay in focus but the semiconductor names are running the Nasdaq right now. Sustained strength in Intel and its peers is what determines whether this early session recovery turns into something more meaningful heading into the close.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.