Sui Price Forecast: Depressed On-Chain Data Favors 33% Drop for SUI

Sui (SUI) has been one of the most battered altcoins this year, with a 46% loss, as on-chain metrics show that crypto natives have shunned this L1 blockchain.

Market conditions have deteriorated significantly this year as analysts now envision a rate hike in September as inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s target.

In addition, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and President Donald Trump’s hostilities with multiple countries on the tariffs front have kept the market on its toes and have pushed investors out of the riskiest corners of the crypto world.

Once a promising layer-one blockchain offering one of the fastest transaction processing speeds in the space, Sui has faced a significant migration of capital out of its ecosystem.

Developers have lost interest in the industry as money is being rotated toward more exciting areas of tech like artificial intelligence (AI).

Stablecoin Supply on SUI Shrinks by 70% While App Fees Drop to Their Lowest Level Since July 2024

As a result, we see a significant depression in on-chain metrics, starting with stablecoin balances. According to DeFi Llama, the amount of stablecoins parked in the Sui ecosystem has dropped from a peak of $1.6 billion in May 2025 to $492 million as of last month.

Meanwhile, this year alone, the total amount has stood relatively unchanged near the $500 million level.

On the other hand, app fees, which reflect the total amount collected by Sui’s DeFi and payment applications, have dropped to their lowest levels since July 2024, back when this L1 was relatively unknown to the crypto community.

Meanwhile, at $1.4 million, they just experienced a 53% drop in June compared to the previous month. This is a clear indication that network usage remains heavily depressed and has gone down to levels that reflect reduced adoption and a narrower range of real-world use cases for this blockchain.

Similarly, DEX volumes are down by 92% compared to their October all-time high and retreated by 26% in June compared to the previous month, closing at $2.2 billion.

Sui Could Drop to $0.57 as Volumes Dry Up

Looking at the charts, the weekly time frame shows that SUI faces a strong downside risk as it could revisit the $0.57 area if the current downtrend persists. This means a potential 33% loss.

Heavily depressed on-chain metrics favor a bearish outlook as Sui has struggled to demonstrate that it can attract developers to its blockchain and has also seen its credibility hit by a recent outage in May that lasted over 6 hours.

The last two times that Sui has hit this demand zone, it has bounced strongly off that level. The last time it happened was during the October 2025 flash crash.

Whether that demand still exists given the current state of the market is unclear, but it is likely where things will be heading if the market starts to scan lower price zones to find liquidity.

SUI/USDT Daily Chart – Source: TradingView

A closer look at the daily chart shows that a descending price channel has formed as a result of the most recent price action.

It appears that the market could stage a controlled descent to $0.58 instead of a big flush as part of this discovery process. Whether it takes the stairs or the elevator down, the path of least resistance seems to be downwards.