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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Retail Sales Meet Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 16, 2026, 16:37 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • GBP/USD pulled back as traders reacted to economic reports from U.S. and UK.
  • USD/CAD made an attempt to settle below the support level at 1.4010 - 1.4025.
  • USD/JPY gained ground amid rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To Economic Data

DXY 160726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates. Retail Sales Ex Autos declined by -0.2%, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 208,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 217.000. The report showed that labor market remained in decent shape, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.

NAHB Housing Market Index decreased from 36 (revised from 35) in June to 34 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 35.

U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and is trying to settle above the 100.75 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the 50 MA at 100.92. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30.

EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Take Profits After Recent Rebound

EUR/USD 160726 4h Chart

EUR/USD pulls back as traders focus on economic reports from the U.S. Pending Home Sales declined by -5.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.5%.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.

GBP/USD Pulls Back As UK Industrial Production Misses Estimates

GBP/USD 160726 4h Chart

GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on UK GDP report. The report showed that UK GDP increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, in line with analyst consensus.

Manufacturing Production increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.2%. Industrial Production decreased by -0.5%, while analysts expected that it would drop by -0.1%.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the support level at 1.3450 – 1.3465, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3400. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.

USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025

USD/CAD 160726 4h Chart

USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver tested strong support at $56.00. Other commodity-related currencies are losing some ground in today’s trading session.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025. In case USD/CAD settles below the 1.4010 level, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is close to the oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rebound

USD/JPY 160726 4h Chart

USD/JPY is moving higher as traders react to the rebound in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.17% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.58%.

USD/JPY is moving towards multi-decade highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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