EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD Forecasts – Major Pairs Test Key Moving Average Bounds

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro has tried to rally against the US dollar but is starting to drift a little bit lower from the stretch higher early on Thursday. This is a market that continues to see a lot of short-term sideways action, but quite frankly doesn’t seem to have a reason to break out yet.

The 1.14 level continues to be an area of interest and support just as the 1.15 level seems to be resistant. It now has the 50-day EMA there, causing some resistance as well, and until we get some type of clarity about the global economy and the war, traders seem to be a little hesitant to put money into the market in any massive amount.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar is drifting lower again against the Canadian dollar. This is probably seen as an influence of a couple of different things. Number 1, the Canadian employment numbers were higher than anticipated last week, the US CPI and PPI numbers were lower than anticipated this week, and of course, oil has been rallying since the war kicked off again.

And while that doesn’t have quite the influence on this pair it once did, it still does influence the Canadian dollar in general. The market is approaching an area that previously had been significant resistance, so market memory could come into the picture. Traders will be looking for signs of a bounce to continue the massive move higher that started at the beginning of May. At this point, the market is in an area of inflection that I think could be very interesting.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is pretty noisy. It did break higher over the last couple of days, so maybe the 200-day EMA will end up being a support level after all. It did hang around that indicator a couple of weeks. Now it’s pressuring the 50-day EMA, and it’s just above the 0.70 level.

If the US dollar continues to weaken, then it would make sense that the Australian dollar could benefit from it. After all, the RBA recently sounded a little more hawkish, and if there is inflation and commodities start to take off, a lot of traders will default to the Aussie dollar to play that market.

At this point, it does look more positive than negative, but I’m not expecting explosive moves in this type of environment unless something changes. We are in an uptrend that has gone sideways over the last several months. The top of that sideways action is somewhere closer to the 0.72 level, so we’ll have to pay attention and see if that ends up being a target.

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