Tariff Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Stocks

Thursday’s session brought little change to the broader stock market, despite earlier optimism driven by Nvidia’s earnings and a tariff-related ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade. The S&P 500 closed 0.40% higher after a volatile session.

This morning, markets are fluctuating following fresh news involving Trump and renewed concerns over China allegedly violating the trade deal. The S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower.

Investor sentiment has slightly deteriorated, as reflected in the Wednesday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 32.9% of individual investors are bullish, while 41.9% are bearish.

The S&P 500 remains at a critical resistance zone between 5,900 and 6,000.

Nasdaq 100 Pulls Back Below 21,500

The Nasdaq 100 closed 0.21% higher on Thursday after peaking above 21,600 intraday. Today, it’s set to open 0.4% lower. Resistance remains around the 21,500 level, suggesting continued consolidation after rallying from the April low.

VIX Remains Below 20

The Volatility Index fell back below the key 20 level this week, in line with rising stock prices.

Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s upward reversal.

S&P 500 Futures: More Fluctuations

This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is trading near the 5,900 level after a pullback triggered by Trump’s latest comments about the U.S.-China trade deal. The index remains within a consolidation.

Support is around the 5,860-5,900 level, based on recent lows.

Conclusion

I think that the S&P 500 is likely to remain in consolidation today. Being the final trading day of the month, we may see some “window dressing” into the close – which could offer support to the bulls. Still, this remains a news-driven market, and volatility can’t be ruled out.

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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist