The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Fed and Earnings Wave Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were mixed early Wednesday as traders digested earnings and positioned ahead of today’s key Fed decision. The S&P 500 futures edged up 0.06% to 6,410, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.13% to 23,483.50, and Dow futures slipped 0.02% to 44,805.

The S&P 500 ended Tuesday down 0.3%, halting a six-session record-setting run. The Dow lost 0.5% and Nasdaq declined 0.4%, pressured by renewed uncertainty around U.S.–China trade negotiations.

Starbucks rallied 4% post-close after beating revenue expectations, while Visa fell over 2% despite topping earnings estimates. Focus now shifts to tech giants Meta, Microsoft, Ford, and Robinhood, which all report after today’s close.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:15 GMT, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected at 77K, down from 110K prior. A significant downside surprise could reinforce rate cut expectations.

At 12:30 GMT, Advance GDP q/q is forecast at 2.5% (prior: 2.0%), and GDP Price Index at 2.2%, well below the previous 3.8%. Any softening here would support dovish Fed projections.

At 14:00 GMT, Pending Home Sales are projected at +0.2% m/m (prior: +1.8%).

At 18:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady at 4.50%, with Fed funds futures pricing in a 98% probability. Market participants will focus on Powell’s 18:30 GMT press conference for any cues on September policy direction amid political pressure to ease rates.

Notable Earnings

Before the open:

AerCap (AER): $3.01

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM): $1.07

Altria (MO): $1.31

American Electric Power (AEP): $1.25

ArcBest (ARCB): $1.98

Ardmore Shipping (ASC): $1.14

Automatic Data Processing (ADP): $2.09

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA): $0.57

Bausch + Lomb (BLCO): $0.13

Blackbaud (BLKB): $1.08

Bunge (BG): $1.73

CGI Group (GIB): $1.91

Check Point Software (CHKP): $2.17

Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF): $0.40

Clarivate (CLVT): $0.20

Clean Harbors (CLH): $2.46

Criteo (CRTO): $1.08

Entegris (ENTG): $0.71

Entergy (ETR): $1.92

Etsy (ETSY): $0.41

Evercore (EVR): $1.81

Federal Signal (FSS): $0.95

Fiverr (FVRR): $0.58

Fortive (FTV): $0.93

Fresh Del Monte (FDP): $1.06

Garmin (GRMN): $1.58

Gates Industrial (GTES): $0.36

GE HealthCare (GEHC): $1.00

Generac (GNRC): $1.35

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK): $0.43

Harley-Davidson (HOG): $1.63

Hayward Holdings (HAYW): $0.21

Hershey Foods (HSY): $1.27

Hess Midstream Partners (HESM): $0.59

Humana (HUM): $6.96

IDEX Corp (IEX): $2.06

Illinois Tool Works (ITW): $2.54

InMode (INMD): $0.34

Ionis Pharma (IONS): -$0.45

Kraft Heinz (KHC): $0.78

Leonardo DRS (DRS): $0.18

Littelfuse (LFUS): $1.97

LXP Industrial Trust (LXP): $0.16

Materion (MTRN): $1.42

Monro Muffler (MNRO): $0.22

Navient (NAVI): $0.29

New Oriental Education (EDU): $0.22

Newmark Group (NMRK): $0.22

OGE Energy (OGE): $0.51

Old Dominion (ODFL): $1.48

OneSpaWorld (OSW): $0.20

Option Care Health (OPCH): $0.30

Penske Automotive (PAG): $3.61

ProPetro (PUMP): -$0.03

Radware (RDWR): $0.20

Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN): $0.46

Scorpio Tankers (STNG): $3.60

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG): $2.31

Silgan Holdings (SLGN): $0.88

SiteOne Landscape (SITE): $2.63

Sleep Number (SNBR): -$0.22

Smurfit Westrock (SW): $0.59

Stepan Company (SCL): $0.41

Steven Madden (SHOO): $0.57

Stifel Financial (SF): $1.60

Strategic Education (STRA): $1.33

Teva Pharma (TEVA): $0.61

Vita Coco (COCO): $0.32

Thryv (THRY): $0.15

Timken (TKR): $1.63

Tradeweb Markets (TW): $0.70

Trane (TT): $3.30

United Therapeutics (UTHR): $5.85

V.F. Corp (VFC): -$0.33

Verisk Analytics (VRSK): $1.74

Vertiv (VRT): $0.67

Virtu Financial (VIRT): $0.83

Watsco (WSO): $4.49

WEC Energy Group (WEC): $0.67

Wingstop (WING): $0.93

After the close:

Albany Intl (AIN): $0.89

Albemarle (ALB): $0.04

Align Tech (ALGN): $2.41

Alignment Healthcare (ALHC): -$0.13

Alkami Technology (ALKT): $0.05

American Water Works (AWK): $1.42

Antero Midstream (AM): $0.23

Antero Resources (AR): -$0.21

Applied Digital (APLD): -$0.14

Arm Holdings (ARM): $0.40

AvalonBay (AVB): $2.77

Axos Financial (AX): $1.80

Benchmark Electronics (BHE): $0.57

Black Hills Corp (BKH): $0.33

C.H. Robinson (CHRW): $1.15

Cactus (WHD): $0.81

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP): $1.05

Carlisle Cos (CSL): $6.24

Carvana (CVNA): -$0.05

CBIZ (CBZ): $0.39

Cognex (CGNX): $0.23

Cognizant Tech (CTSH): $1.17

Comstock (CRK): -$0.20

Confluent (CFLT): $0.06

CONMED (CNMD): $0.98

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS): -$0.10

CVR Energy (CVI): $0.09

Dexcom (DXCM): $0.43

eBay (EBAY): $1.18

Element Solutions (ESI): $0.36

Employers Holdings (EIG): $1.10

EPR Properties (EPR): $1.22

Equinix (EQIX): $9.22

Ethan Allen (ETD): $0.70

Everest Group (EG): $16.85

EVERTEC (EVTC): $0.83

Extra Space Storage (EXR): $2.06

F5 Networks (FFIV): $3.36

Fair Isaac (FICO): $6.25

FirstEnergy (FE): $0.56

Flowserve (FLS): $0.73

FMC Corp (FMC): $0.63

Ford Motor (F): $0.47

FormFactor (FORM): $0.35

Glaukos (GKOS): -$0.52

Green Brick Partners (GRBK): $2.32

Guardant Health (GH): -$0.84

Hanover Insurance (THG): $1.88

Hologic (HOLX): $1.06

Host Hotels (HST): $0.57

Impinj (PI): $0.83

Independence Realty Trust (IRT): $0.28

Invitation Homes (INVH): $0.47

Lam Research (LRCX): $8.17

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY): $0.51

Merit Medical (MMSI): $0.92

Meta Platforms (META): $5.16

MGIC Investment (MTG): $0.77

MGM Resorts (MGM): $0.86

Microsoft (MSFT): $2.95

Mid-America Apartment (MAA): $2.22

Mister Car Wash (MCW): $0.11

Modine Manufacturing (MOD): $1.04

Murphy USA (MUSA): $6.92

MYR Group (MYRG): -$0.91

National Fuel Gas (NFG): $0.99

NETGEAR (NTGR): -$0.74

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX): $1.63

NorthWestern (NWE): $0.53

Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC): $1.67

Pitney Bowes (PBI): $0.03

Prudential (PRU): $3.39

PTC (PTC): $0.98

Public Storage (PSA): $4.23

Q2 Holdings (QTWO): -$0.22

Qualcomm (QCOM): $2.33

Radian Group (RDN): $0.98

Robinhood Markets (HOOD): $0.21

Rush Enterprises (RUSHA): $0.97

Rush Street Interactive (RSI): $0.04

Service Corp (SCI): $0.79

Silicon Motion (SIMO): $0.96

Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX): $0.58

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): $0.94

SPS Commerce (SPSC): $0.80

Sturm Ruger (RGR): $0.47

Sun Communities (SUI): $1.86

Tenable (TENB): $0.31

Tenaris (TS): $0.59

Tetra Tech (TTEK): $1.59

TransMedics Group (TMDX): $0.35

Tronox (TROX): $0.07

TTM Technologies (TTMI): $0.39

Tyler Tech (TYL): $2.40

Udemy (UDMY): -$0.04

UDR (UDR): $0.62

Ventas (VTR): $0.80

VICI Properties (VICI): $0.57

VSE Corp (VSEC): $0.71

Waystar Holding (WAY): $0.04

Western Digital (WDC): $1.44

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini Futures last traded at 6,410.00, consolidating below the recent high of 6,457.75. Resistance levels are stacked at 6,457.75 and 6,500. Initial support rests at 6,318.75, followed by 6,241.00, with the 50-day moving average rising to 6,168.00 and the 200-day at 6,015.70.

Nasdaq 100 Futures last traded at 23,483.50, holding near recent highs. Resistance is seen at 23,652.50 and 23,800. Support sits at 23,108.00, with stronger downside protection at 22,803.00, the 50-day at 22,459.60, and the 200-day at 21,453.47.

Dow Futures last traded at 44,805, below resistance at 45,312. Support levels are at 44,423 and 43,973, with the 50-day and 200-day MAs converging near 43,699.20 and 43,613.00, respectively.

Outlook

Today’s session will be driven by the Fed’s policy announcement and Powell’s tone at the press conference.

While no rate move is expected, any deviation in language around inflation or growth risks could trigger repricing.

Traders should also stay tuned to mega-cap earnings after the bell, which will shape sentiment into month-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.