The Day Ahead: Markets Eye Powell and Earnings Wave Today for Direction

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are modestly weaker Tuesday morning. S&P 500 futures are down 0.09% to 6,339.00, Nasdaq 100 futures slip 0.19% to 23,297.25, and Dow futures fall 0.2% to 44,495.

This follows a Monday session where the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%, both closing at fresh record highs. The Dow lagged slightly.

Strong early earnings have powered gains, with over 60 S&P 500 firms reporting and 85% topping estimates. However, sentiment is cautious as stretched valuations and fast recovery from May lows raise concerns about market sustainability.

Key Economic Releases

All times GMT:

• 14:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: forecast –2 (prior –7). A stronger print could dampen rate cut expectations.
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report

Central Bank Activity

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 12:30 GMT Tuesday at an event in Washington. Traders will scrutinize his remarks for any updated signals on inflation progress or rate path guidance. A dovish tone could support further equity gains, while hawkish commentary may pressure high-valuation names and temper recent risk appetite.

Notable Earnings

Before the open:

• Coca-Cola (KO): EPS $0.87 actual vs. $0.83 est., revenue $12.62B vs. $12.54B est.
• General Motors (GM): EPS $2.53 vs. $2.44 est., revenue $47.12B vs. $46.28B
• Philip Morris (PM): est. EPS $1.86
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): est. EPS $6.52
• Equifax (EFX): est. EPS $1.92
• Danaher (DHR): est. EPS $1.64
• D.R. Horton (DHI): est. EPS $2.89
• PulteGroup (PHM): est. EPS $2.96
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW): est. EPS $3.80
• Avery Dennison (AVY): est. EPS $2.39
• Badger Meter (BMI): est. EPS $1.24
• Community Financial System (CBU): est. EPS $1.01
• First Bancorp (FBP): est. EPS $0.46
• Genuine Parts (GPC): est. EPS $2.07
• Halliburton (HAL): est. EPS $0.56
• Hope Bancorp (HOPE): est. EPS –$0.14
• Interpublic (IPG): est. EPS $0.56
• Invesco (IVZ): est. EPS $0.41
• IQVIA (IQV): est. EPS $2.77
• KeyCorp (KEY): est. EPS $0.35
• MSCI (MSCI): est. EPS $4.14
• Northrop Grumman (NOC): est. EPS $6.84
• Old National Bancorp (ONB): est. EPS $0.52
• PACCAR (PCAR): est. EPS $1.29
• Pentair (PNR): est. EPS $1.34
• RTX (RTX): est. EPS $1.44
• Synchrony Financial (SYF): est. EPS $1.81
• Tenet Healthcare (THC): est. EPS $2.88
• Valmont Industries (VMI): est. EPS $4.71

After the close:

• Texas Instruments (TXN): est. EPS $1.35
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): est. EPS $1.93
• Enphase Energy (ENPH): est. EPS $0.64
• Baker Hughes (BKR): est. EPS $0.56
• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): est. EPS $6.27
• Capital One Financial (COF): est. EPS $4.03
• Cathay General Bancorp (CATY): est. EPS $1.09
• Chubb (CB): est. EPS $5.96
• CoStar Group (CSGP): est. EPS $0.14
• East West Bancorp (EWBC): est. EPS $2.25
• EQT Corp (EQT): est. EPS $0.43
• Manhattan Associates (MANH): est. EPS $1.13
• Matador Resources (MTDR): est. EPS $1.44
• National Bank (NBHC): est. EPS $0.79
• Pegasystems (PEGA): est. EPS $0.24
• PennyMac (PFSI): est. EPS $2.75
• Range Resources (RRC): est. EPS $0.65
• Renasant (RNST): est. EPS $0.68
• SAP SE (SAP): est. EPS $1.66
• Trustmark (TRMK): est. EPS $0.87
• Vicor (VICR): est. EPS $0.17

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini Futures last traded at 6,339.00. Resistance levels are 6,374.00 and 6,400.00. Support lies at 6,241.00, followed by the 50-day moving average at 6,110.20 and the 200-day at 6,002.51.

Nasdaq 100 Futures last traded at 23,297.25. Resistance is noted at 23,367.00 and 23,500.00. Support sits at 22,803.00, 22,582.00, the 50-day MA at 22,209.50, and the 200-day MA at 21,379.78.

Dow Futures last traded at 44,495. Resistance levels are 45,043 and 45,177. Support is at 43,973, the 50-day MA at 43,401.80, and the 200-day MA at 43,573.

Outlook

Markets remain data- and earnings-sensitive. Tuesday’s session will hinge on Powell’s remarks and a barrage of Q2 results from industrials, banks, and tech. With momentum elevated and valuation rich, any disappointment in earnings or hawkish rhetoric could trigger downside volatility. Positioning ahead of Wednesday’s Alphabet and Tesla reports will likely define near-term risk appetite.