The Day Ahead: Markets Today Eye Jobless Claims, Delta Earnings, Fed Remarks, AI Momentum

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower early Thursday after the S&P 500 recouped part of its tariff-driven slide.

As of 08:30 GMT, S&P 500 futures are down 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.29%, and Dow futures lower by 0.24% (107 points). The market remains focused on President Trump’s announced 50% tariff on Brazil starting August 1, citing “unfair trade relationships.” Brazil has confirmed it will respond under its economic reciprocity law.

Wednesday saw the S&P 500 and Dow close higher by 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.9% to close at a record high, driven by strong AI momentum.

Nvidia rose nearly 2%, briefly touching a $4 trillion market cap, while Palantir added 2.5%. Boeing (+3.7%) and Caterpillar (+2%) led industrial gains, lifting the sector to a record close alongside tech.

Investors remain focused on the inflationary impact of tariffs after the Fed’s June minutes showed officials split on the scale and timing of rate cuts.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:30 GMT, Weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending July 5 are due, with forecasts expecting an increase of 2,000 to 235,000 from 233,000 prior. A higher reading could support Fed easing expectations if labor market cooling aligns with inflation moderation, while a lower print may challenge near-term dovish bias and support yields.

Notable Earnings

Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports pre-market, with the Street expecting Q2 EPS of $2.02 on revenue of $15.4 billion. Focus will be on management’s view of tariff-related business travel impacts.

Additional pre-market reports:

Conagra (CAG): $0.59 EPS est.

Helen of Troy (HELE): $0.90 EPS est.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL): $0.50 EPS est.

Post-close reports:

Levi Strauss (LEVI): $0.13 EPS est.

PriceSmart (PSMT): $1.12 EPS est.

WD-40 (WDFC): $1.44 EPS est.

Central Bank Activity

The Fed’s June minutes highlighted a split on the timing and scope of potential rate cuts, with discussion around tariff-driven inflation risks and potential downside pressures on consumption and investment.

Today, FOMC members Musalem, Waller, and Daly are scheduled to speak. Markets will monitor remarks on tariff impacts, the labor market, and the policy path, with traders watching for any recalibration of near-term Fed guidance.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Bitcoin surged to a fresh record above $112,000, supported by institutional flows, dovish Fed speculation, and broader risk-on sentiment tied to AI sector momentum.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini Futures trade near 6,298 with resistance at 6,333.25. Support is layered at the 50-day moving average at 6,009.50, the 200-day moving average at 5,988.10, and the swing bottoms at 5,959.00 and 5,808.75.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures trade near 23,030 with resistance at 23,112. Support is layered at the 50-day moving average at 21,727.80, the 200-day moving average at 21,288.80, and the prior lows at 21,566.75 and 20,943.50.

Dow E-mini Futures trade near 44,636 with resistance at 45,177 and secondary resistance at 46,326. Support is layered at the 200-day moving average at 43,537, the 50-day moving average at 42,893.60, and the prior low at 42,088.00.

Outlook

Focus remains on AI-led momentum despite tariff concerns. Weekly claims data will provide near-term clarity for Fed expectations, while speeches from Musalem, Waller, and Daly may deliver additional directional cues. Traders should monitor Delta’s earnings for confidence signals while watching for retests or breaks of resistance across indices into Friday’s positioning flows.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.