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The S&P500 Melt-Up to 5500+ Is Still on Track.

By:
Dr. Arnout Ter Schure
Published: Mar 28, 2022, 18:47 UTC

The index topped at SPX4522, dropped to SPX4456, and is now trading at SPX4540, which is about 1.8% higher than when my last update was posted, thus supporting my Bullish thesis.

The S&P500 Melt-Up to 5500+ Is Still on Track.

In this article:

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

A little over a week ago, see here, I found using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), the S&P500 (SPX) should

ideally top around SPX4500+/10, then back down to SPX4430+/-10, and …. top out around SPX4700+/-50 for (red) intermediate-i before a multi-day/week correction kicks in: wave-ii. See Figure 1 below.

The index topped at SPX4522, dropped to SPX4456, and is now trading at SPX4540, which is about 1.8% higher than when my last update was posted, thus supporting my Bullish thesis.

Besides, my short-term upside and downside targets were only off by ~0.3% showing the accuracy of the Fibonacci-based Elliott wave I used, and my premium major market members put it to good use. Indeed, I fit my opinion to the market and not the other way around because that is a futile exercise resulting in financial ruin.

Figure 1. S&P500 daily candlestick charts with detailed EWP count

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Rally to SPX4700 should see a few minor pullbacks (4th and 5th waves)

So how are things progressing? Figure 1 above shows that (green) minor-3 is about complete because the index has reached the ideal target zone. It can still try for the 161.80% Fib-extension at SPX4600+/-10, but it is not necessary because there are enough smaller waves to consider wave-3 complete.

A short-term pullback to the wave-4 target zone at SPX4430-4490 should commence soon. Upper end preferred, from where wave-5 can rally to ideally SPX4640-4700. This Bullish thesis will come under pressure if the pullback moves below SPX4385 with a severe warning below SPX4430.

Bottom line

The S&P500 topped and bottomed, short-term, within 0.3% of my ideal upside and downside target zones, and should now be wrapping up a minor 3rd wave. A multi-day 4th wave down to ideally SPX4490-4430 should commence soon before the index can rally to SPX4640-4700. I still expect a 200-400 correction from those levels before the rally to 5500+ gets going in all earnest.

My Bullish thesis will come under pressure if the multi-day 4th wave pullback moves below SPX4385 with a severe warning below SPX4430. Thus overall, the S&P500 is still progressing in a highly predictable impulsive manner, and I continue to expect this. Knowing the most likely path forward short- to long-term is tremendously advantageous because there will be very few real surprises.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Dr. Ter Schure founded Intelligent Investing, LLC where he provides detailed daily updates to individuals and private funds on the US markets, Metals & Miners, USD,and Crypto Currencies

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