The Week Ahead: Oil Surge and Geopolitics Loom Over Earnings, Payrolls Data

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are sharply lower to begin the week. Dow futures are down more than 500 points, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures off roughly 1% following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Crude oil has surged nearly 8%, while gold is higher as investors rotate into defensive assets.

Last week, the S&P 500 closed February in the red as pressure in artificial intelligence and software shares offset strength elsewhere. The index has traded in an unusually tight range for four months, masking significant internal rotation.

This week’s central theme is geopolitical risk layered on top of AI leadership uncertainty. Higher oil prices reintroduce inflation concerns just as markets debate the durability of elevated AI infrastructure spending.

Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close and represents a key test for semiconductor leadership. With AI spending estimates near $700 billion this year and skepticism building around capital intensity, guidance from Broadcom could influence near-term direction for the Nasdaq and broader tech complex.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Mar 2
Before the Open:
• AAON (AAON), est. $0.45
• ADT (ADT), est. $0.22
• Astrana Health (ASTH), est. $0.11
• California Resources (CRC), est. $0.51
• Dave (DAVE), est. $3.31
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), est. $0.26
• Sealed Air (SEE), est. $0.73
• Turning Point Brands (TPB), est. $0.87
• Uniti Group (UNIT), est. $1.61
• Venture Global (VG), est. $0.35
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• Ameresco (AMRC), est. $0.33
• Archer Aviation (ACHR), est. -$0.24
• Asana (ASAN), est. $0.07
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), est. -$0.17
• BigBear.ai (BBAI), est. -$0.06
• Core Scientific (CORZ), est. -$0.16
• Credo (CRDO), est. $0.91
• MongoDB (MDB), est. $1.48
• Plug Power (PLUG), est. -$0.10
• Riot Platforms (RIOT), est. -$0.21

Tuesday, Mar 3
Before the Open:
• Best Buy (BBY), est. $2.46
• EVgo (EVGO), est. -$0.09
• Kontoor Brands (KTB), est. $1.64
• Marex Group (MRX), est. $1.02
• On (ONON), est. $0.20
• Scholar Rock (SRRK), est. -$0.89
• Sea Limited (SE), est. $0.78
• Sportradar (SRAD), est. $0.09
• Target (TGT), est. $2.15
• Thor Industries (THO), est. $0.04
• Viking Holdings (VIK), est. $0.54
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• AutoZone (AZO), est. $27.31
• B&G Foods (BGS), est. $0.30
• Box (BOX), est. $0.34
• CrowdStrike (CRWD), est. $1.10
• GitLab (GTLB), est. $0.23
• Ross Stores (ROST), est. $1.90
• STAAR Surgical (STAA), est. $0.18

Wednesday, Mar 4
Before the Open:
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), est. $3.57
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI), est. $1.76
• Brown-Forman (BF.B), est. $0.47
• Dycom (DY), est. $1.87
• National Vision (EYE), est. $0.06
• Stevanato Group (STVN), est. $0.17
• Wix.com (WIX), est. $1.40
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• American Eagle (AEO), est. $0.71
• Broadcom (AVGO), est. $2.02
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL), est. -$0.30
• Okta (OKTA), est. $0.85
• Veeva Systems (VEEV), est. $1.94

Thursday, Mar 5
Before the Open:
• Autohome (ATHM), est. $2.41
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), est. $0.92
• Burlington Stores (BURL), est. $4.74
• Ciena (CIEN), est. $1.16
• Kroger (KR), est. $1.20
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), est. $2.51
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Weekly Jobless Claims, prior 212K (four-week avg 220K)
After the Close:
• Costco (COST), est. $4.53
• Marvell (MRVL), est. $0.79
• Samsara (IOT), est. $0.13
• The Gap (GAP), est. $0.45

Friday, Mar 6
Before the Open:
• Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN), est. $0.05
• Embraer (EMBJ), est. $0.78
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Nonfarm Payrolls, forecast 25K (prior 130K)
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.3% (prior 4.3%)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Federal Reserve officials remain active ahead of the March 7 quiet period. Markets will focus on commentary tied to labor conditions and inflation expectations following the recent move lower in Treasury yields. Any reference to growth risks or inflation pressures could influence short-term rate expectations.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 48,977.93 (-1.31%), support at 48,428.13, 45,728.93 then 45,189.70 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,668.21 (-0.95%), support at 22,256.76, 21,898.29, 21,073.43 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 23,988.27.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,878.88 (-0.44%), support at 6,775.50, 6,521.92, 6,360.79 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

The week opens with elevated geopolitical risk and higher energy prices pressuring sentiment. Early price action will reflect how markets digest oil’s spike and the risk of broader regional escalation.

Broadcom’s earnings Wednesday serve as a critical barometer for AI infrastructure demand and semiconductor leadership. Strong results and guidance could stabilize growth sectors, while disappointment would likely pressure the Nasdaq further.

Friday’s payroll report then becomes the macro pivot. A softer print would reinforce rate-cut expectations. Steady employment would support the view that growth remains intact. Together, these catalysts should determine whether equities hold near-term support or extend the pullback into mid-March.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.