Trade Data Delivers Little EUR Support. Economic Sentiment and ECB President Lagarde Up Next

After a quiet start to the week, German trade data was in focus early in the European session.

The German Economy

In September, Germany’s trade surplus widened from €13.0bn to €13.2bn versus a forecasted €13.6bn.

According to Destatis,

• Exports fell by a further 0.7%, month-on-month, after having declined by 0.8% in August. Year-on-year, exports were up 7.1%.
• Imports rose by a modest 0.1% after having increased by 2.1% in August. Compared with the same month a year earlier imports were up 12.9%.

Trade with EU countries

• Compared with Sept-2020, exports to EU countries rose by 9.2%, while imports increased by 9.4%.

Trade with euro area countries

• German exports to euro area countries increased by 9.2% when compared with Sept-2020.
• Imports from euro area countries rose by 11.9%.

Trade with EU countries outside of the euro area

• Exports to EU countries outside of the euro area increased by 9.4% when compared with Sept-2020.
• Imports from EU countries out of the euro area rose by 4.5%.

Trade with non-EU countries

• Exports to third countries increased by 4.7%, when compared with Sept-2020.
• Imports from third countries jumped by 17.1%.

Market Impact

Ahead of today’s trade data and economic sentiment figures, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat and current day low $1.15773 before rising to a pre-stat and current day high $1.16066.

In response today’s trade data, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.16033 before falling back to sub-$1.159 levels.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.15884.

Next Up

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone. On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak ahead of the U.S open.

Both the ZEW numbers and the ECB President will draw plenty of interest.

From the U.S, October wholesale inflation figures and FED Chair Powell will be in focus later in the European session.

Expect plenty of interest in the wholesale inflation figures and any comments vis-à-vis the economic outlook and the FED Chair’s view on inflation. Any shift from last week’s script will move the dial…