Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Quiet in Holiday Trading After Thursday Jump

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets continue to trade in a range between $3 on the bottom and somewhere around $3.40 on the top. The inventory numbers on Thursday did show a little more of a drawdown than anticipated, and that had buyers coming into the market on Thursday. But on Friday, it’s been very quiet.

Now, that of course makes a certain amount of sense. After all, you have a situation where we are wondering about the overall demand and supply, as per usual. But you should also be aware of the fact that this is a market that I think probably continues to watch the fact that there will be very little in the way of longer-term demand due to the fact that the market is going to see a very serious lack of heating demand. That’s really what drives natural gas more than anything else.

Technical Outlook and Seasonal Demand Factors

But we are trading the July contract, and there is the possibility that we could see a little bit of a heat wave. But that heat wave is normally a short-term move, to say the least. So, if we do jump based on that, I’m more than willing to come in and short the market at the first signs of exhaustion.

It appears that Qatar has about 80% capacity after the war. So, if that’s going to be the case, the Europeans are going to continue to be able to see supply, and it should keep prices here in North America down a bit as well. Keep in mind, this is a US-centric contract.

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