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U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Initial Jobless Claims Drop: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Feb 19, 2026, 16:51 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD moved lower as Euro Area Consumer Confidence missed analyst estimates.
  • GBP/USD remained under pressure as traders bet on dovish BoE.
  • USD/JPY made an attempt to settle above the 155.00 level.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Tests New Highs

DXY 190226 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders focus on the better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 206,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 225,000.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Pending Home Sales report for January. The report showed that Pending Home Sales decreased by -0.8% on a month-over-month basis, compared to analyst forecast of +1.3%.

Treasury yields were mostly flat as traders reacted to the better-than-expected job market data. However, the American currency managed to gain some ground as traders bet on hawkish Fed.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 98.00 – 98.15. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 98.90 – 99.05 range.

EUR/USD Tests Support At 1.1770 – 1.1785

EUR/USD 190226 4h Chart

EUR/USD is under pressure as traders focus on the Euro Area Consumer Confidence report.

The report showed that Euro Area Consumer Confidence improved from -12.4 in January to -12.2 in February, compared to analyst forecast of -11.8.

EUR/USD declined below the 1.1800 level and is trying to settle below the support at 1.1770 – 1.1785. If EUR/USD manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support at 1.1670 – 1.1685.

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure

GBP/USD 190226 4h Chart

GBP/USD continues to move lower as traders react to economic reports from the U.S.

The recent job market data from the UK continues to put pressure on the British pound as traders bet that BoE will be forced to cut rates to provide additional support to the UK. economy.

GBP/USD attempts to settle below the 1.3450 level. If GBP/USD settles below this level, it will move towards the nearest support at 1.3400 – 1.3415.

A successful test of the 1.3400 level will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 1.3285 – 1.3300 range. Traders should note that RSI is in the oversold territory, so the risks of a rebound are increasing.

USD/CAD Is Mostly Flat As Traders Ignore The Rally In The Oil Markets

USD/CAD 190226 4h Chart

USD/CAD is swinging between gains and losses despite the strong rally in the oil markets, which was triggered by geopolitical risks.

Other commodity-related currencies have managed to gain some ground in today’s trading session.

At this point, traders are mostly focused on Fed policy outlook, so the better-than-expected job market data is bullish for USD/CAD.

The nearest resistance level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3725 – 1.3740 range. If USD/CAD climbs above the 1.3740 level, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3835 – 1.3850.

USD/JPY Keeps Moving Higher As Traders React To U.S. Job Market Data

USD/JPY 190226 4h Chart

USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at 154.50 – 155.00 as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report.

In Japan, traders focused on the Machinery Orders report for December. The report showed that Machinery Orders increased by +19.1% month-over-month, compared to analyst forecast of +4.5%.

It should be noted that Machinery Orders declined by -11% in November, so this report is rather volatile. Thus, it’s not surprising to see that traders have mostly ignored the report and focused on the economic data from the U.S.

In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 155.00 level, it will head towards the resistance, which is located in the 158.00 – 158.50 range. RSI has recently moved back into the moderate territory, so there is enough room to gain momentum in the near term.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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