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U.S. Dollar Moves Away From Yearly Highs: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jun 19, 2026, 16:43 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on Germany's PPI data.
  • USD/CAD tested new highs amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY settled below the 161.50 level as traders reacted to Japan's inflation report.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back From Yearly Highs

DXY 190626 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is mostly flat as traders take some profits off the table after the strong rally. There are no economic reports scheduled to be released today due to Juneteenth National Independence Day, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.

The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 100.50 level, it will head towards the next support at 99.70 – 99.85.

On the upside, a move above the 100.90 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30.

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Profit-Taking

EUR/USD 190626 4h Chart

EUR/USD attempts to rebound as traders react to Producer Prices report from Germany. The report indicated that Germany’s PPI increased by +2.2% year-over-year in May, compared to analyst consensus of +2.5%.

If EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1475 level, it will move towards the resistance level, which is located in the 1.1500 – 1.1515 range. A successful test of the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515 will open the way to the test of 50 MA at 1.1551. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1585 – 1.1600.

GBP/USD Moves Higher As UK Retail Sales Exceed Estimates

GBP/USD 190626 4h Chart

GBP/USD gained some ground as traders focused on the Retail Sales report from the UK. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +1.2% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, Retail Sales increased by +3.2%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the GfK Consumer Confidence report. The report showed that Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -23 in June, compared to analyst forecast of -24.

The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3250 – 1.3265 range. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3265 level, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI has recently moved out of the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Tests New Highs

USD/CAD 190626 4h Chart

USD/CAD moved higher as traders focused on the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $4150 level, while silver settled below $64.50. Other commodity-related currencies have also pulled back in today’s trading session as traders focused on hawkish Fed.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will move towards the next resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240. It should be noted that RSI is in the overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are rising.

USD/JPY Is Mostly Flat As Traders Focus On Japan’s Inflation Rate Report

USD/JPY 190626 4h Chart

USD/JPY has recently made an attempt to settle above the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00 as traders reacted to changes in Fed policy outlook and focused on inflation data from Japan.

Inflation Rate increased from 1.4% in April to 1.5% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 1.6%. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 1.4%, in line with analyst estimates.

A successful test of the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00 will provide USD/JPY with an opportunity to gain additional upside momentum and move towards the 163.50 level. It remains to be seen whether the Bank of Japan would be ready to defend the yen in case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.00.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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