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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Mar 26, 2026, 16:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing GfK Consumer Confidence report from Germany.
  • USD/CAD tested new highs amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY climbed above the 159.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Traders Bet On Escalation Of The War In The Middle East

DXY 260326 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on rising oil prices and react to the Initial Jobless Claims report.

WTI oil climbed above the $94.00 level as Iran has formally responded to the proposal from the U.S. Iran wants the U.S. and Israel to stop “aggression” and demands reparations. Obviously, Iran’s proposals would not be accepted, so traders bet on additional escalation in the Middle East.

Initial Jobless Claims report showed that 210,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, in line with analyst expectations.

U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 99.70 – 99.85. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 99.85 level, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 100.35 – 100.50 range.

EUR/USD Retreats As GfK Consumer Confidence Misses Estimates

EUR/USD 260326 4h Chart

EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to recent developments in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets is rising, which is bearish for the European currency.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the GfK Consumer Confidence reprot from Germany. The report indicated that Consumer Confidence decreased from -24.8 in March to -28.0 in April, compared to analyst forecast of -26.5.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. If EUR/USD declines below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1410 – 1.1425. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Tests Support At 1.3315 – 1.3330

GBP/USD 260326 4h Chart

GBP/USD is moving lower as traders focus on general strength of the American currency. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the UK today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.

Currently, GBP/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.3315 – 1.3330. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3215 – 1.3230 range.

USD/CAD Tests New Highs

USD/CAD 260326 4h Chart

USD/CAD tests new highs as traders react to the sell-off in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $4450 level, while silver pulled back below $69.00.

The strong rally in the oil markets did not provide any support to the Canadian dollar. Other commodity-related currencies have also moved lower in today’s trading session. From a big picture point of view, rising tensions in the Middle East serve as a negative catalyst for the Canadian dollar as traders rush to safety of the U.S. dollar.

USD/CAD climbed above the resistance at 1.3800 – 1.3815 and is trying to settle above the 1.3850 level. If USD/CAD settles above 1.3850, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3885 – 1.3900.

USD/JPY Is Heading Towards The 160.00 Level

USD/JPY 260326 4h Chart

USD/JPY gains ground as traders react to rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved towards the 3.95% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.38%.

USD/JPY is slowly moving towards the psychologically important 160.00 level. It remains to be seen whether BoJ will try to defend the yen in case USD/JPY climbs above this level. If USD/JPY manages to settle above 160.00, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 161.50 – 162.00 range.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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