U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Traders Focus On Trump’s Speech: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

U.S. Dollar Retreats Amid Tariff Uncertainty

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders wait for clarity on tariff policy. Trump’s State of the Union Speech did not provide sufficient information on the details of the future tariff policy.

According to U.S. Trade Representative Greer, Trump will raise the global tariff to 15% “where appropriate”.

U.S. Dollar Index faced strong resistance near the 98.00 level and pulled back towards 97.70. In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below 97.70, it will head towards the 50 MA at 97.54. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support at 97.10 – 97.25.

EUR/USD Tests The 1.1800 Level

EUR/USD gains ground despite the disappointing GfK Consumer Confidence report from Germany. The report indicated that Consumer Confidence declined from -24.2 in February to -24.7 in March, compared to analyst forecast of -23.1.

Traders also focused on tariff issues. Greer did not provide details on whether 15% global tax would violate the trade deal with the EU. The fate of the U.S. – EU trade deal is an important catalyst for EUR/USD.

Greer also noted that it would take a couple of months to reestablish the tariff policy that was in place before the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs were illegal.

EUR/USD received strong support in the 1.1770  – 1.1785 range and climbed towards the 50 MA at 1.1810. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.1835 – 1.1850 range.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As Rebound Continues

GBP/USD tested new highs as traders focused on the weakness of the American currency.

As tariff policy remained uncertain after Trump’s speech, traders have started to buy other currencies, including British pound.

Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the 50 MA at 1.3536. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the resistance at 1.3565 – 1.3580.

USD/CAD Pulls Back As Silver Climbs Above $90.00

USD/CAD is losing ground as traders react to the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $5200 level, while silver soared above $90.00.

Other commodity-rleated currencies gained significant upside momentum in today’s trading session.

From the technical point of view, USD/CAD failed to settle above the resistance at 1.3725 – 1.3740 and declined towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 1.3650 – 1.3665 range.

In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3650 level, it will move towards the next support at 1.3585 – 1.3600. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Tests New Highs As Traders Bet On Dovish BoJ

USD/JPY continues to move higher as traders ignore intervention risks and focus on dovish BoJ policy outlook.

At this point, the key question is whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs towards the 158.00 level.

In case forex traders believe that BoJ does not have enough firepower to defend the 158.00 level, USD/JPY may quickly get to the test of the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50.

Fundamentally, the yen is weak due to structural problems of the Japanese economy, including huge government debt, low growth and ageing population.

If USD/JPY settles above the 156.50 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50.

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