US Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Rises on 14.1K Claimant Drop; Eyes on Upcoming US CPI

Arslan Ali

As GBP/USD climbs, bolstered by a notable decline in Claimant Count, all eyes turn to the impending US CPI report for next moves.

US Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Rises on 14.1K Claimant Drop; Eyes on Upcoming US CPI


  • US Dollar grapples with fiscal challenges; Federal Budget Balance reflects at -21.9 billion USD.
  • GBP’s resilience shines with robust labor indicators; Claimant Count and Earnings Index bolster strength.
  • Upcoming CPI reports and EU Economic Sentiments set to influence USD and EUR’s near-term trajectories.

Economic Events Shape Forex Outlook; Eyes on US CPI

The US Dollar recently felt the impact of a Federal Budget Balance reported at -21.9 billion USD, a figure that underscores the nation’s fiscal challenges. In contrast, the GBP has shown signs of economic resilience, highlighted by a Claimant Count Change of 14.1K and an Unemployment Rate at 3.8%, alongside an Average Earnings Index 3m/y increase of 5.8%.

These figures suggest a robust labor market in the UK, potentially strengthening the GBP against its peers.

Events Ahead

Anticipated events include the US Core CPI and CPI monthly reports, forecasted at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, with year-over-year CPI expected at 2.9%. These indicators hint at ongoing inflationary pressures that could influence Federal Reserve policies.

Across the pond, the EUR zone awaits the ZEW Economic Sentiment, with the European figure at 20.1 and the German sentiment at 17.4. Furthermore, the EU Economic Forecasts loom large, serving as a barometer for the continent’s economic health and policy direction. A hawkish tilt in these forecasts could lend strength to the EUR.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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