US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – 50% Price at 92.720 Key Level This Week

Despite the passage of the biggest tax reform bill in 30 years and higher Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar fell against a basket of major currencies last week. Most of the loss was attributed to a stronger Euro, which rallied 0.94%. The dollar also lost ground against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars as well as the British Pound. Losses were tempered by a sharp rise in the Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

March U.S. Dollar Index futures settled the week at 92.924, down 0.539 or -0.58%.

Weekly Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of a closing price reversal top the week-ending November 10.

A trade through 92.130 will change the main trend to down. This could lead to an eventual move to the next main bottom at 90.680.

A move through 93.825 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this generates enough upside momentum, we could see an eventual test of the main top at 94.760.

The main range is 90.68 to 94.76. Its retracement zone at 92.720 to 92.239 is support. This zone essentially stopped the selling at 92.13 the week-ending December 1.

The short-term range is 94.760 to 92.130. Its retracement zone is resistance. It stopped the rally at 93.825 the week-ending December 15.

Weekly Swing Chart Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 92.924 and last week’s price action, the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 92.720.

A sustained move over 92.720 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the index into the short-term retracement zone at 93.445 to 93.755. Look for a possible acceleration to the upside on a sustained move over 93.825.

A sustained move under 92.72 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration into the main Fibonacci level at 92.239, followed by the main bottom at 92.130. This is another trigger point for an eventual break into 90.680.