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US Dollar Index News: DXY Holds Steady Amid Fed Rate Pause Speculation

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Sep 19, 2023, 13:48 GMT+00:00

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains near its six-month top, with eyes locked on the Federal Reserve's impending monetary policy decision.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Highlights

  • DXY remains close to six-month high, amidst rate speculation.
  • Euro’s boost from ECB’s liquidity reduction plans may be fleeting, warns MUFG strategist.
  • Japanese yen flounders near 10-month low, with BOJ rate decision in the crosshairs.
  • Sterling rate decision looms, but the Canadian dollar flourishes on strong economic indicators.

U.S. Dollar Maintains a Delicate Balance Amid Rate Expectations

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is treading water this week as it remains near its six-month high from last week. Market watchers are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s next move, fully pricing in a rate hold at the upcoming meeting according to the CME FedWatch tool. Speculation persists over whether the Fed will hint at another rate hike before year’s end or signal a more extended pause.

Euro’s Short-lived Gains Amid ECB’s Plans

The euro experienced a brief lift after reports suggested that the European Central Bank (ECB) could soon discuss reducing excess liquidity in the eurozone banking system. The massive pool of excess cash is not only diminishing the impact of ECB’s rate hikes but also leading to losses for some central banks. However, despite a minor boost, strategist Lee Hardman of MUFG believes this alone won’t be enough to turn the tide for the euro, which has been on a downtrend for the last two months.

Yen Continues to Struggle Amid Policy Uncertainty

The Japanese yen is under scrutiny as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) prepares for its monetary policy meeting on Friday. The yen is hovering around a 10-month low, and expectations indicate that the BOJ is likely to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy. Governor Kazuo Ueda has triggered speculation about a policy shift, but significant changes are not anticipated in the short term.

Sterling and Canadian Dollar on Diverging Paths

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday, the sterling remains stagnant. A rate hike is expected, but this might be the last one for the foreseeable future given economic uncertainties. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has rallied to a one-month high, buoyed by strong inflation data and rising oil prices that may influence the Bank of Canada’s interest rate stance.

Short-Term Forecast: Mixed Signals Abound

Overall, the dollar remains delicately poised amid rate hold expectations, while the euro and yen face challenges despite some short-lived gains. The Canadian dollar shows signs of strength, leaving the market sentiment somewhat mixed. Investors should brace for possible shifts as central banks, including the Federal Reserve and ECB, provide further guidance.

Technical Analysis

4-Hour US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY’s current 4-hour price of 105.012 sits marginally above its previous 4-hour mark of 104.977, reflecting slight positive momentum. While the price is above the 200-4H moving average of 103.805, suggesting bullishness, it’s slightly below the 50-4H moving average of 104.942, a bearish hint. The 14-4H RSI reads 47.50, which is below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating weakened momentum but not yet in the oversold territory.

The DXY remains comfortably above its main support area (103.273 to 103.013) but approaches its main resistance zone (105.095 to 105.883). Interpreting these signals, the current market sentiment leans slightly bullish, but caution is warranted given mixed technical cues.

From a volatility standpoint, a break under the 50-4H moving average at 104.942, could trigger an acceleration to the downside with plenty of room to fall before reacting support.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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