US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed and BOE Speeches Set the Tone for GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near $99.99, easing slightly after Wednesday’s volatile session. The greenback retreated from its recent highs as traders digested mixed U.S. economic data, while investors shifted focus to major central bank meetings.

Wednesday’s U.S. Data Shows Mixed Signals

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change surprised to the upside, reporting 42,000 new jobs in October versus 32,000 expected, a strong rebound from the -29,000 drop previously.

However, the improvement wasn’t enough to spark sustained dollar strength, as the ISM Services PMI came in at 52.4, only marginally higher than 50.0 in September, signaling modest economic expansion.

Later, remarks from President Trump had limited market impact, as traders awaited more concrete policy clues.

Focus Shifts to Bank of England and U.S. Data

Thursday’s spotlight turns to the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy report and Governor Bailey’s speech. The BOE is expected to maintain the Official Bank Rate at 4.00%, with voting anticipated at 0–3–6, indicating cautious optimism despite sluggish UK growth. Meanwhile, markets will listen closely for signals on future tightening or dovish adjustments.

In the U.S., FOMC member Waller’s remarks later today and Friday’s UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast of 53.0 (down from 53.6) will shape short-term dollar momentum. Overall, traders remain cautious as monetary policy divergence and slowing global growth keep the dollar’s path uncertain.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 99.99, easing after failing to sustain above 100.35 resistance. The price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 99.23, with key support levels seen at 99.67, 99.46, and 99.25.

A break below 99.25 could deepen the pullback toward 98.57 or even 98.09, where the 200-EMA (98.88) offers dynamic support. The RSI at 55 signals cooling momentum, suggesting limited upside unless buyers reclaim 100.35–100.65.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.3064, attempting a modest recovery after recent losses. The pair faces resistance at $1.3139, aligning with a descending trendline and the 50-EMA, while the 200-EMA at $1.3313 remains a broader cap.

A rejection near current levels could see renewed downside toward $1.3010 and $1.2930. The RSI at 41 signals weak momentum, suggesting bears still have control despite short-term relief.

Overall, the pound remains under pressure, with rallies likely to fade unless a sustained break above $1.3140 shifts sentiment toward recovery.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD trades around $1.1514, attempting a modest rebound after finding support near $1.1470. However, the pair remains locked within a descending channel, capped by the 50-EMA at $1.1547 and 200-EMA at $1.1622.

A rejection from this zone could renew downside pressure toward $1.1440 and $1.1409. The RSI near 48 shows limited momentum, hinting at consolidation before the next move. For bulls, a decisive break above $1.1580–$1.1620 is needed to shift sentiment higher.