US Dollar Pulls Back Against Yen in Safety Bid

The US dollar has fallen during the trading session on Thursday as there is a bit of a safety bid coming out of the concerns with Russia possibly moving more troops towards the order of Ukraine. Because of this, it looks as if we are going to go crashing towards the 50 day EMA, and then possibly even lower than that. This “risk off” move of course is something that we have seen more than once, and as a result markets may be getting a bit tired of this entire situation and simply giving up any type of risk appetite. With that being the case, I think we could see a little bit more of a pullback in you may have to pay close attention to that potential double top above. This does not necessarily mean that I see a trend change, just that we may have a lot of work to do.

USD/JPY Video 18.02.22

I do not think of it as much of a trend change until we break down below the ¥112.50 level. That is essentially where the 200 day EMA sits right now, and of course is an area that has been important in the past. If we were to break down below there, then I think we have quite a bit further to fall. Keep in mind that we are at an area that has been difficult multiple times in the past, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see trouble again. With this being the case, a little bit of patience probably goes a long way as I do not the silly want to short this market, but I would pick up value if it is offered.

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