USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Loonie Consolidating Near 1.3460/70 Levels

The OPEC member, Saudi Arabia, claims that the recent attack on its two oil tanks alarms for supply security concerns. Crude upsurged reaching near $61.11 bbl.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Canadian Dollars

Last night, the Loonie got uplifted baselessly around 100 pips amid a subdued Greenback and Oil price action. The pair soar straight from 1.3380 levels reaching near 1.3480 levels. Today, in the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode around 1.3460/70 levels. Meanwhile, Investors tend to move to less risky assets like Gold and other safe-haven assets.

Trade tensions continued to put down the market sentiment. In response to the US tariffs, China had retaliated by imposing tariff duties on numerous US imports. Those US goods included Frozen vegetables and Liquefied Natural Gas which cost around $60 billion. However, as per recent reports, Trump feels that the US-Sino Trade talks “Going To Be Very Successful”.

The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures was trading around $61.11 per barrel, 0.1% up for the day. As there is an inverse relationship between the Crude and the Loonie, the oil price upsurge should undermine the pair. Crude prices moved upwards in the early hours as Saudi alarms for oil supply security concerns. Recently, two oil tanks of Saudi got sabotaged near the UAE border. The OPEC-member claims that this action is an attempt to disturb the oil supply chain over increased US-Iran sanction issues.

The Greenback computed against the six major rivals was trading around 97.33 levels. The US Dollar Index was also following a consolidated session like the Loonie.

USD/CAD Influencing Events

Today, the economic calendar is silent on the CAD events. However, the USD specific events may impact the pair in the upcoming hours. Earlier at  07:15 GMT, the Fed’s William talked about the current economic scenarios happening in the US.

At 12:30 GMT, there are many US indexes scheduled to release. The NFIB will issue the April Business Optimism Index and the analysts expect a hike in this index. Later, the April Export Price Index (Both YoY & MoM) will come out and this time the market remains bearish. Furthermore, the YoY & MoM Import Price Index would get broadcasted. The street analysts are expecting the April Import data to increase today. Laterwards, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock since May 10, will get published at 20:30 GMT. The earlier Crude stocks got reported near 2.808 million per barrels.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 14 May 2019

The pair was hovering near 1.3465 levels at 09:00 GMT and remained within 1.3480/60 levels. The Moving Average Conversion Diversion (MACD) indicated bearish signals lying below the dividing line. The spikes in MACD was tilting downwards, showing a moderate trending market. During the early hours, the pair was drifting in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands (BB). Laterwards, the pair traveled southward moving to the lower area of BB, revealing a downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing to 52 levels.

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