USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie Pair Clinched Near Its Two-Week Tops

Lowering Crude prices added the extra fuel to the loonie pair upsurge. Greenback anticipates the US March Industrial Numbers.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Canadian Dollar

Post-release of BoC’s Q1’19 sentiment reports, the loonie pair had soared drastically around 86 pips, reaching 1.3380 levels yesterday. The USD/CAD, however, kept upholding near the same upper vicinity during today’s Asian trading session. In spite of that, the pair had already knocked off the day’s high touching 1.3400 levels.

Crude Oil WTI futures continued tumbling near $63.23 per barrel, heading the next support line of $63 per barrel. This extended slump in the crude was on the backdrop of rising hopes for US inventories, lowering the oil demand. In the meanwhile, reports suggest that Russia may slowly recede from the OPEC-led supply cuts.

On the other side of the equation, the greenback looked south amid US President Trump tightening the monetary policies. After starting the day near 96.94 levels, the index was hovering near 96.89 levels at around 04:00 GMT.

Key USD/CAD Impacting Events For Today:

On the Canadian release front, Statistics Canada will release three low volatile events for the day at around 12:30 GMT.

  • Feb MoM Manufacturing Shipments: This index computes the overall Canadian shipments during the month. The consensus estimates the results to come around zero percent as compared to the previous one percent.
  • Canadian Feb Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities: If these outflow numbers come above-the-previous negative 8.8 billion dollars then it may serve as excellent support for CAD.
  • Foreign Feb Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: The previous numbers had reported $28.4 billion. So, anything above that upticks bullishness for the pair.

On the US side,

  • 13:15 GMT

March MoM Industrial Production: Consensus takes on a bullish stance of 0.2 percent over the reports.

  • 20:30 GMT

API will release the weekly crude inventory count since April 12. The previous inventories marked at 4.091 million.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 30 Min 16 April 2019

The loonie bulls hovered near its two-week high, fluctuating mostly in the upper bound of the Bollinger bands (BB). This movement in the top vicinity hints for a bullish trend in the future actions of the USD/CAD. Meanwhile, the pair attempted to break through the strong resistance of 1.3399 levels but failed to accomplish. Adding to this, the USD/CAD traded well above the moving averages computed for the critical days, confirming bull calls.

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