USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – US Jobless Claims Data Could Revert Loonie Direction

The Loonie rebounded from the monthly top near 1.3494 levels in the morning session. After rallying for quite some time since opening, the USD/CAD pair fell off reaching near 1.3474 levels.

The USD/CAD pair rose in the Asian session amid plunging Crude prices. The Crude WTI Oil Future was trading near $61.37 per barrel or 1.03% at that time. The Oil fell over the escalating Global tensions and ballooning US Inventories.

On the US Dollar side, the index marked a fresh high near 97.69 levels today. Laterwards, the Greenback lost 13 pips over the ongoing US-China trade dispute. While there remained no significant US events yesterday, the Green money stood open to any further updates on Trade war. Recently, a piece of news quoted Donald Trump statement saying “China broke the trade deal”. Over this news, the USD remained apathetic, and the USD/CAD pair stood consolidated.

USD/CAD Specific Events

On the CAD events front, the March Import & Export, Housing data, and the International Merchandise Trade data are lined-up today. The consensus estimates the reports to appear bullish this time.

Over the USD front, the Loonie bulls buckled-up ahead of the Fed’s Powell statements over the US economic outlook. At 13:45 GMT, the Fed’s Bostic may give his opinion about the country’s monetary policy. Both of these events may significantly impact the pair. Meanwhile, the US PPI excludes food & energy is lined up for the day. This PPI is estimated to come around 2.50 percent over the last 2.40 percent. The US Trade Balance will get released in the European session. The market hopes for a rise in the trade numbers this time. Also, the US Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to appear bullish.

Technical Analysis

The Loonie that lingered inside the upper area of the Bollinger Bands was slowly deviating towards the EMA. The pair may break-off the center line and jump into the lower portion of the Bands. From there, the pair may showcase strong downtrends. The Bands also remained quite narrow in shape, revealing a little volatile trade. The pair has notably bounced back multiple times during this month from the robust 1.3494 levels. Today, it displayed a re-attempt to breach this sound resistance levels.

The selling bias appeared to increase as the RSI indicated somewhere near 50 levels. The Loonie hovered above the significant SMAs alluding a strong uptrend. Last day, the 50-days SMA and 100-days SMA had swapped their positions. Now, the former lies above the latter, showing near-term market interest. However, the USD/CAD was testing the SMAs and may soon reach down surpassing them. This pivotal action could reverse the overall trend in the pair.