USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Falls on Softer Services Report

The dollar whipsawed but moved lower against the Loonie. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher following the Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday. The U.S. services sector decellerated after hitting a record-high growth rate in November. The ISM Services Report purchasing managers index fell to 62.0 in December from 69.1 in November, below the 66.8 consensus forecast.

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD whipsawed and moved lower. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.2750. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.2677. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to a lower exchange rate.

Canadian Goods Trade Balance Posts Surplus

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday the country in November posted a goods-trade surplus of 3.13 billion Canadian dollars. The consensus estimate was for a C$2.1 billion surplus. The November data marked the highest trade surplus since September 2008. Exports rose 3.8% in November to reach a record level of C$58.57 billion, while imports increased 2.4% to C$55.44 billion.